Today Will Be A Big Day For Andy Dalton: I Feel It In My Plums
Brutal week last week going 2-3, bringing us to 13-7 so far through 4 weeks. (21-9 in nfl including MNF & TNF).
Not bad, not great, but better than these guys.
Here are my plays for Week 5. Remember to bet responsibly on the Barstool Sportsbook.
Seattle Seahawks at New Orleans Saints -5.5 (45)
This will be a big day for the red rocket Andy Dalton, who looked great taking over for Jameis Winston in London.
Seattle gives up an NFL-high 8.7 yards per pass attempt and will yield a few big plays to Chris Olave. While the Saints have to play post-London without a bye, the Seahawks are traveling east for the second straight week.
So this is one of those tough early Pacific time starts for the Seahawks Seattle cannot stop the run at all. The Seahawks allow 3 yards per contact per rush attempt, ranking LAST in the NFL. So it should be a big day for Alvin Kamara.
Add in the fact we're getting a discount on this spread because of Seattle's performance last week in Detroit, and I like it even more. The Saints outplayed the Vikings last week a good portion of the way and came out on the short end of a wild ending. Look for their defense to force a couple turnovers and lead the way to a decisive victory Sunday.
The play = Saints -5.5
Seahawks 22
Saints 30
Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars -7 (43.5)
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In Trevor Lawrence's NFL debut last year, the Jaguars were favored by 3.5 points at Houston but instead were handed a 37-21 loss to the Texans, who swept the season series with a 30-16 win in the rematch.
Jacksonville has dropped 8 straight to Houston. That's old Patriots/Bills level of domination.
Yes, Jacksonville has taken a giant step forward this year while Houston has stumbled out the gate.
Even so, the winless Texans will rightfully see this as a winnable game against an upstart Jacksonville club that probably isn't quite deserving of a full touchdown spot Sunday. 7 is a lot of points in the NFL.
Take the points.
The play = Texans +7
Texans 21
Jaguars 27
Miami Dolphins at New York Jets (46)
This has all the makings of a perfect Jets blunder.
Ton of key injuries to Miami starters which the Jets should easily be able to capitalize on. Especially at home.
But its the J-E-T-S we're talking about.
Is Teddy Bridgewater that much worse than Tua Tagovailoa? If you take away the game where Tua torched the Ravens' terrible secondary, he's thrown two TD passes all season.
Teddy Bridgewater is 42-21 ATS as a starter in his career (5-2 as a road favorite).
Those are fantastic numbers.
The Dolphins were understandably shaken last week amid Tua's concussion, but I think they'll regroup against a Jets team that's not very good. A Nick Chubb non-kneel and some fortunate bounces off Kenny Pickett passes make this team 2-2 instead of 0-4. Lay the points.
The play = Dolphins -3
Dolphins 27
Jets 20
Philadelphia Eagles at Arizona Cardinals +5.5 (48.5)
Simply put, this line stinks. It stinks to high heavens.
Philly is the better team, by a mile, Arizona can't score, they're struggling heavily with Hopkins, and they suck at home.
This has all the making for a Philly rout. Yet the line isn't even a touchdown. And everybody and their mother is hammering the Eagles. Yes it opened 3 points lower, the sharps slammed it, and all of Philly jumped aboard to swing it a field goal. But the money hasn't stopped coming in on them this week. So why hasn't it moved another point or a point and a half?
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I smell a trap.
I bet Murray has one of those out-of-his-mind games today and the Cards back door cover spoiling a zillion parlays.
The play = Cardinals +5.5
Eagles 24
Cardinals 21
Las Vegas Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs -7 (51.5)
Kansas City smoked Las Vegas 89-23 in last year's sweep, and they've averaged 37.4 points over the past eight meetings.
The Chiefs offense is clicking right now. Last week in Tampa racking up 189 rushing yards against one of the league's best rush defenses.
K.C.'s defense ranks eighth in yards per play allowed, third in yards-per-carry allowed (3.3), and it should contain Josh Jacobs. The unit also ranks in the top six in pressure rate and sacks.
The Raiders' win over Denver was a bit fluky given the fumble-return touchdown they benefitted from. Lay the points.
The play = Chiefs -7
Raiders 20
Chiefs 33
LET THE BOY WATCH!
Good luck everybody, and remember to bet responsibly on the Barstool Sportsbook!