All Teddy Bridgewater Does Is Cover Football Games: Stats And Trends For NFL Week 5
Welcome back to the Stats Lab.
Every Sunday morning during the NFL season, I'll be blogging the stats I used on Barstool Sports Advisors that week, plus some other ones I found from my research for each game we covered. Whenever I pour through the data each week, I try to separate the meaningful trends from the nonsensical ones. For example, a team with a really good ATS record against a specific division (not their own)? Probably doesn't matter that much. Teams are always changing, and there's nothing that suggests all the same teams in a division play a certain way or anything. But a coach being really good off a bye week? That says something. A team covering a lot as a road dog? Probably means they're being consistently undervalued. League wide trends that hold steady across hundreds of matchups spanning years and years? Those are gold. So you have to look at every stat individually and decide if it matters.
Below is my entire cheat sheet I use for Advisors each week. Lines courtesy of the Barstool Sportsbook at the time of Advisors taping (Wednesday morning). I'll also be keeping track of my record each week.
Last Week: 2-3
YTD: 12-8
New York Giants (3-1, 3-1 ATS) vs. Green Bay Packers (3-1, 2-2 ATS)
9:30 AM on NFL Network (London)
GB -8
T 41.5
The under just has to be the play here. Let's run through some stats. The under is 22-5-2 in the Giants last 29 games overall. In their last 15 games, only 2 have gone over 41 points. And Packers unders are 3-1 this season. They’ve scored a total of just 21 points in their 2 games outside of Lambeau Field. I've watched enough Giants football this year to know that the under is going to hit more than it misses. They're either playing with a banged up QB or Davis Webb this week. And their defense isn't horrible. I don't know how 42 points get scored in this one.
The Stats Say: Under
Miami Dolphins (3-1, 3-1 ATS) @ New York Jets (2-2, 2-2 ATS)
1 PM on FOX
MIA -3.5
T 44
Teddy Bridgewater is a god damn cover machine. He's 43-21 ATS overall and an absurd 24-6 ATS on the road. And when playing as a backup QB, he's 14-4 ATS. Meanwhile, the Jets have not won back to back games since 2020. They are 0-6 SU and 1-5 ATS following a win since the start of last season.
The Stats Say: Dolphins
Philadelphia Eagles (4-0, 3-1 ATS) @ Arizona Cardinals (2-2, 2-2 ATS)
4:25 PM on FOX
PHI -5
T 49
Things are pretty simple with Kliff Kingsbury. If he's a favorite, fade him. If he's a dog, take him. He's 20-9-2 ATS as an underdog. And Cardinals magic in October isn't just a baseball thing. Arizona is 12-3 ATS in October under Kingsbury. Take the points here.
The Stats Say: Cardinals
Dallas Cowboys (3-1, 3-1 ATS) @ Los Angeles Rams (2-2, 1-3 ATS)
4:25 PM on FOX
LAR -4.5
T 43.5
We have a couple of pro-Rams trends to look at here. Sean McVay is 19-8 SU off a loss in his career, which is the best mark in football since 2017. He's 16-10-1 ATS in that spot. And don't worry about the fact that they just played on MNF. The Rams have won and covered 5 straight games on short rest.
The Stats Say: Rams
Cincinnati Bengals (2-2, 2-2 ATS) @ Baltimore Ravens (2-2, 2-1-1 ATS)
8:20 PM on NBC
BAL -3
T 48.5
We're going back to the well here with primetime unders. After Thursday's hideous display of football, the under is now 34-17 in the last 51 primetime games. And the Bengals have sneaky become one of the best under teams in the league. The under has hit in 9 straight Bengals games. Let's keep riding the trends.
The Stats Say: Under
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