Reasons to Be Cheerful About the Patriots 1-3 Start
I mentioned this over a year ago in reference to the Patriots offseason. It's a novelty song from One Hit Wonder Ian Dury and the Blockheads that inexplicably charted back in a more creative, eclectic era for pop music. "Reasons to Be Cheerful, Part 3" (if there was ever a Part 1 or 2, I must've missed them) has been an ear worm for me ever since. To the point I specifically remember going with my brother Jack and then-toddler son to Patriots camp in 2001, at Bryant College in Smithfield, RI and asking Jack to give me "reasons to be cheerful" about a team that was coming off a 5-11 season. He proceeded to run through the whole roster, naming low-budget free agents they'd signed like David Patten, Mike Compton and Anthony Pleasant. And expressing optimism about their draft class, that included Richard Seymour and Matt Light. Every one of whom became an integral part of that Super Bowl championship, and the ones that followed. And since the last time I used Ian Dury as a rhetorical device Bill Belichick won the Executive of the Year for the way he rebuilt his roster into a playoff team, why not go back to the well?
Here are our reasons to be cheerful, despite being 1-3:
A slow start to the season was expected. And acceptable.
It certainly was by me. I've said so all along. Especially since the schedule makers didn't do them any favors with three road games in the first month. There were new additions on both sides of the ball. An new offensive coaching staff. An entirely new offensive system was being installed. And, in my humble opinion, eventually scrapped for a slightly tweaked version of the old one. These things take time. They certainly do around here, where slow starts to a season are the rule, not the exception. Where September is considered to be an extension of training camp. Belichick himself said it takes five or six weeks to figure out who you are, what you do well and what you can improve on.
Never forget that the legendary Trent Dilfer "Let's face it, they're not good anymore!" rant came after a debacle in Kansas City that dropped them to 2-2. Then it was "We're onto Cincinnati" and, eventually, a Super Bowl win. The 2017 defense started out historically bad, giving up 300-plus passing yards per game. They too, started 2-2 and ended up in the Super Bowl. Last year the Pats weren't just 1-3, they fell to 2-4, on their way to 10-7. The last time before that they started 1-3? It was the 2001 champions.
Moral victories like Sunday's have value.
Trust me, I hear myself. Moral victory talk sounds like loser talk every time it's tried. The kind of thing you expected to hear out of Dan Campbell or some Jets coach trying desperately to hang onto his job as his team is swirling the drain. But they can have a profoundly positive effect.
In the Knee Jerk Reactions to the loss at Green Bay, I made the obvious comparison to Week 4 last year, the loss to Tampa Bay that came down to a missed field goal as time expired. In which the Patriots rookie quarterback responded to the high octane, nitro-powered adrenaline rush of the moment and used it to play better than anyone could've possibly expected. A few weeks later, they went on a tear that led to seven straight wins and that aforementioned trip to the playoffs. That game itself was a perfect analog to a loss back in 2001. Also a Sunday nighter against a recent Super Bowl champion, when the Pats lost a close one to the St. Louis Rams and fell to 5-5. But it was a one-score game. They were in it until the end. The final difference ended up being a long, sustained drive engineered by Kurt Warner that bled the clock dry and kept the Pats offense on the sidelines. But to a person, the entire team felt they had turned a corner. They'd proven to themselves they could play with the best the league could throw at them. And they were right. They didn't lose again the rest of the way.
Remember that there's only one word separating "moral" and "morale." See what I did there? I don't know whether that belongs on a poster in a locker room or a "Live, Love, Laugh"-type sign at Pottery Barn. But it certainly should live on beyond this blog post.
They kinda got screwed Sunday.
Watch Kendrick Bourne, motioning to the right:
A correctly called hold there gives the Patriots a 1st down on the bleeding edge of Nick Folk's field goal range. No use crying over it now. That officiating crew was objectively terrible and not fit to ref a Powder Puff game. But if they'd gotten that one right, we're talking about a victory that's more than just moral.
The offense is improving.
The scheme Matt Patricia, Joe Judge and, to a much larger extent, HC Bill, are running spent a lot of time in the shop through the spring and summer. And didn't look at all good in Miami. But it is performing well in extended road tests. Understandably, they took a step backwards in terms of total yards Sunday, with Bailey Zappe sliding from the warm, safe womb that is the bottom of the depth chart into the noise and lights of the delivery room that was Lambeau Field. But prior to that they were trending well:
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Total Yards:
Week 1: 271
Week 2: 376
Week 4: 447
And with Zappe in, the run game continued its upward trajectory:
Rushing Yards:
Week 1: 78
Week 2: 124
Week 3: 145
Week 4: 167
And as this team tries to figure out who they are and what they do well, they can point to the way their power run game kept them close with Green Bay, as well as the way it closed out the win at Pittsburgh, and use that as the foundation of what they do going forward.
The deep passing attack is much more effective than it was last year.
We can be shocked and appalled by the turnovers. And we should. It's a moral obligation for all of us because such things are no more tolerated in New England than using turn signals or Manhattan Clam Chowder (which is shellfish and tomato vomit). And while Mac Jones has to clean that up, I'll argue that the interceptions and the quarterback fumbles (such as Zappe's in Green Bay) are a product of an emphasis on attacking downfield.
According to Next Gen Stats, Jones is fourth among all quarterbacks in Average Completed Air Yards with 7.5, and third in Average Attempted Air Yards, with 10.0. As well as fourth in Aggressiveness, with 19.6% of his throws going into tight windows. And according to Pro Football Focus (paywall), he's second among all QBs in deep passing, with 20.6% of his attempts going 20-plus air yards. Subsequently, Brian Hoyer and Zappe each attempted one deep shot and completed it, good for 27- and 21 yards respectively. Everyone was demanding Patricia trust his quarterback and open up the passing attack in ways Josh McDaniels wouldn't. These turnovers are the side effect, at least in part. If you experience interceptions, pressures, QB hits, sacks and strip sacks while using your wide receivers deep upfield, consult your offensive coordinator.
The defense is doing what they've traditionally done best.
Which is force turnovers. While they couldn't get the ball away from Miami in the season opener, they've forced two turnovers in each of the last three games.
The rookies.
Zappe, to be sure. There will be no more comforting feeling than putting him back behind the "Break in Case of Emergency" glass. But he took a major test and aced it. So we have the luxury of knowing that if Mac Jones needs another week or two, he's not going to return to a smoldering pile of rubble. But there's also Cole Strange, who gets better each week, whether it's blowing bigger D-tackles off the line:
… or pulling on lead blocks to blow up linebackers. Then there's Jack Jones, who has quickly established himself as their CB2 opposite Jonathan Jones:
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And carries himself like a guy who is going to be the CB1 in short order:
And Marcus Jones, who just became the kick/punt returner they expected him to be when they drafted him:
The attitude.
This is harder to define, though easy to understand. This team needs to improve in a few areas (better tackling, particularly from the linebackers), but they've proven one thing for sure: They fight. They demonstrated it in putting drive after drive together down one score against Baltimore, only to have them end with turnovers. They confirmed it by taking the Packers to overtime with a rookie QB. Plus they genuinely appear to like playing together, and for this coaching staff, regardless of what we were told all summer.
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Bottom lining this (or however they put it at the sort of meetings I've never had to go to, where a guy with rolled up sleeves does a PowerPoint presentation), there are 1-3 starts, then there are 1-3 starts. You're allowed a limited amount of time to settle your hash before you've got to start ripping off wins in bunches. And the Patriots so far have used up most of that time. But they've got a ton to build off of. And if, by the grace of the football gods, Zappe can hold it together until Mac Jones comes back (soon), they've got what they need to get better as the season rolls into its second quarter.
I hope this cheered you up. It sure did me.