People Don't Like It, But Hitting On 12 vs. A Dealer Showing A 2 Or 3 Is The Right Move

Steven Cheah9/27/2022 5:50 PM

I'm getting crushed for this from some people and I get it, but that's why I like to sit in the left-most spot at a Blackjack table, also known as the anchor spot. What is the anchor you ask?

The anchor is the last person dealt from the blackjack shoe before the dealer deals their own cards. In a full table, it’s position 7, which is by the right hand of the dealer. The reason why this is such a special position is because it becomes your job to fix the choices of all other players prior to you who may have screwed up play to salvage the table. (It’s an ugly job, but somebody’s got to do it). - On The Felt, Thoughts From The Dealer

The anchor spot is where I like to sit because I have a good understanding of the card. And in the situation of a 12 vs. the dealer showing a 3, the card says to hit.

I absolutely hate doing it because you never want the whole table's outcome being directly tied to you, because at the end of the day, it's a game of chance. I do like to take two things into account when sitting in the anchor spot making this call:

Rule #1: Be considerate. Who is playing at the table? Does anyone go big or have a ton of money on the hand? If so, I'll get a read and typically ask if people are cool if I hit because if you pull a 10, then you inevitably bone the whole table. Note: This is a bit harder virtually with a timer.

Rule #2: Be consistent. If you do it once, continue to do that and don't go off of gut. But adhere to Rule #1 first and be considerate of other players.

The data is in the favor of hitting with a 12. There are 10 cards that result in not busting (A, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9) vs. four that do (10, J, Q, K). So mathematically you have a ~71% chance of not busting while hitting on 12. But you just never want to be that guy, so I'd always like to adhere to rule 1. Whereas with a 3 showing the dealer has ~36% chance of busting on the first card with a 9, 10, J, Q, or K. It clearly didn't work out this time, but what would you do in this situation? I polled the twitterverse to see.

Lots of different takes from all over.

Sometimes as the anchor you're the villain, but sometimes you're also the hero.

But that's blackjack baby! I love it! Hank and I will be streaming LIVE at halftime of Monday Night Football every week, so join us at twitch.tv/pardonmytake