Katie's Stats Thursday Night College Football Preview, and Eat Shit Pitt

Jeff Gentner. Shutterstock Images.

We suffered through week zero, and now the fun begins. Five straight days of football, and 16 games tonight. Backyard Brawl and Penn State vs. Purdue alone make the night worth it. Those two games have breakdowns, other teams in tonight's slate have one or two stats that I've found. Tbh might be what I do for the rest of the year, feel like I can do more stats, and more effective. Can you tell I've found a site that is good with first and second half stats? This is the sheet that Dave, Big Cat, and Rico get in Pick Ems. Otherwise, enjoy this WVU hype video, and some stats. 

WVU @ #17 Pitt (-6.5, 51.5), 7:00pm 

• Matchup

  • Haven’t played since 2011. WVU won the L3. Both teams have all 5 starting OLs back. This is the ex-USC QB battle. 

• WVU

  • 111th in returning production. Finished 6-7, with 3 of the losses under 7 points. Only B12 team that returns all of their OL. JT Daniels is QB1, who is reunited with OC Graham Harrell, after their time at USC. JT hasn’t been a starter since 2018, what will he look like after an offseason of all the attention? Lost a 1,000+ yard RB, Leddie Brown. Nearly all new faces on defense. Likely an air raid offense.  

  • L4 regular season games, 2H, 0-4 ATS. In true (no 2020) week 1 games, unders are 5-1 in the L6.

• Pitt

  • 31st in returning production. Is Kedon Slovis going to be back to his 2019/2020 self, or how he was in 2021? Lost Jordan Addison and OC Mark Whipple. All 5 OL return. Were 3rd nationally in ppg, will they be close even close to it with what they lost? 90% of rushing yards are back. Have 6 all-ACC players back on defense. Were #8 in total offense, and #6 in rush defense, last year, can they repeat?

  • New QB and OC, so grain of salt. Last year, all 4 September games went over. Against non-con teams, the over is 6-1. In 1H, 5-1 ATS, in L6 games.

Penn State (-3.5, 54) @ Purdue, 8:00pm

• Matchup

  • Penn State has won the last 9. Last win, in 2019, PSU won 35-7.

• Penn State

  • 72nd in returning production. Lost DC Brent Pry, and WR Jahan Dotson. Still Sean Clifford as QB1, couldn’t run the ball last year, 6th in scoring defense. Started out 5-0, then finished 2-6 last year. Manny Diaz is the DC, need to reload front 7, as well as only 57% (103rd) in returning production. How quickly will fans be screaming for true freshman QB Drew Allar? First time having the same OC in back to back years. Were #118 in rushing offense last year.

  • In L7 games, under is 6-1. As a favorite, under is 6-2. As a favorite by less than a TD and on the road, are 1-4 SU. As away team, under is 6-2. Finished the season on a 2-6 SU run. In September, are 7-0 SU, through the 2021 and 2019 season. In L4 regular season games, 1H, 0-4 ATS.

• Purdue

  • 47th in returning production. Couldn't/didn’t run the ball, 5th in passing offense last year. Lost top 3 receivers, including David Bell, and DE George Karlaftis, among others. The new defensive scheme worked well, did lose big names, but have plenty of returning depth. QB Aidan O’Connell was huge last year, relied on him for the offense, since they rarely ran the ball. Great momentum coming out of last year, can they continue it, or was it a blip? Were #127 in rushing offense last year. 

  • As a dog by 7 or less, are 6-2 SU, 1-1 SU in 2021. In 2021, all 4 September games went under. 5-1 ATS in their L6 games. When a dog to an unranked team, 6-1 ATS. In 1H, 7-2 ATS in L9 games. In 2H, 6-0 ATS in L6 games. 

Straight stats for other games on the slate

Arizona State 

• In 1H, 0-6 ATS in L6 games.

• Against non-con teams, under is 8-0 in the L8.

• Were #13 in total defense last year.

Ball State

• In true week 1 (no 2020), under is 5-0.

Mizzou

• In 1H, 4-0-1 ATS in L5 games.

• At home, 2-7 ATS in the L9, granted the 2 were the most recent 2.

• As a favorite, 0-8 ATS in the L8.

• As a 14+ point favorite, 1-6 ATS in the L7.

• Were #124 in rushing defense last year.

Minnesota

• In 1H, 7-1 ATS in L8 games. 

• #3 in total defense last year, and #8 in rush defense.

Oklahoma State

• In 2H regular season, under is 7-1 in the L8 games.

• Were #4 in total defense last year, and #5 in rushing defense. Lost DC Jim Knowles to Ohio State.

Tennessee

• In 1H, 5-1 for the over in L6 games.

• At home, over is 6-1 in the L7. 

• In true week 1 (no 2020), 0-5 ATS in the L5.

  

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• #9 in total offense last year

UCF

• When a favorite by 21+, over is 5-1 in the L6.

Wake Forest

• No QB Sam Hartman, out with illness for a bit 

• At home, 10-2 ATS in the L12. As a home favorite, 8-2 ATS in the L10.

• As a favorite against non-con, 5-1 ATS in the L6. 

If you do gamble, please do so responsibly, and on the Barstool Sportsbook. Also, uh hi, we're live in Kansas.