NFL Conspiracy Theory: The Trey Lance Arm Fatigue Drama Is Latest Twist In 49ers' Ingenious Sandbagging Campaign

Douglas P. DeFelice. Getty Images.

Zach Wilson is quite literally hogging headlines at the moment. Anticipation is high to see if Trevor Lawrence can live up to almost unprecedented hype with a legitimate coach in Jacksonville. Mac Jones is lifting a weight or two, cutting back on ice cream and actually looks like a professional athlete. Justin Fields…well he's just kind of fucked in Chicago, isn't he?

The point is, it feels as if Trey Lance is getting lost in the shuffle among the 2021 draft class' signal-callers this offseason, despite being positioned to take over as the San Francisco 49ers' starting quarterback this year. THUS, we have some manufactured drama on our hands just to generate a talking point, courtesy of this recent exchange between Colin Cowherd and Mike Silver on Lance dealing with "arm fatigue" because of his work-in-progress mechanics.

"[Lance] gets arm fatigue. It's not an easy throw. He needs days off," Cowherd reported, as Silver nodded in agreement.

For his part, Silver followed up and brought up some positive attributes that apparently have the 49ers excited about Lance's ceiling:

So then what the fuck is the motivation for leaking this bit about Lance and making extremist fans feel like he can't competently throw a football without his arm damn near falling off? 

Grant Cohn was a douche to Javon Kinlaw a while back but he's a 49ers reporter who did some dot-connecting on this "arm fatigue" controversy that stretches way back that got my mind racing with conspiracy-fueled possibilities.

"Go back to late May. Ryan Harris, former NFL player, said he continues to hear out of the 49ers that they're concerned about Trey Lance's readiness, and he cited his lack of arm fitness. […] Right after Ryan Harris said that, Matt Maiocco and Jennifer Lee Chan went on their podcast…Matt said, 'A very high-ranking member of the 49ers organization told [me] the same thing late last season.'"

Cohn added that if Lance truly needed days off between throwing, local media would know about that and it'd be a massive story. So the veracity and severity of concerns about arm fatigue feel dubious to begin with. How about we dig into the intel that surfaced in November 2021 about Lance, and how 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan responded to it:

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Then in May, this nugget about Lance leaked out for public consumption:

So everything lines up. Someone is leaking all worlds of shit about Trey Lance from inside 49ers headquarters. Cohn's speculation is that it's GM John Lynch, who was teammates with Ryan Harris as a player, and was a colleague of Cowherd's at Fox Sports. We can at least infer from this that if this 49ers Deep Throat isn't Lynch himself, it's likely someone close to him in the front office.

But then, you realize that Silver has been tight with the Shanahan family for many years. And in that video I embedded above, before getting into Cowherd's soundbite-worthy sentence about arm fatigue, Silver said, "If you've seen Trey Lance practice now for a whole year, I believe this is what you think if you're Kyle and Niners coaching staff, in fact I know!"

Oh you do do you think you do?

That last line I typed may not make sense to you but was 1,000% intentional. So too, I believe, is all the confusion, mixed messaging and fuckery emerging from the 49ers organization. I think ALL OF THIS a multiplicitous, sandbagging scheme where San Francisco is trying to temper the hype on Lance, to keep opponents guessing as to what he's going to bring to the gridiron and to maximize his chances for success.

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The alternative extreme is that Shanahan and Lynch — who tirelessly researched the 2021 QB class and landed on Lance over Fields and Jones — have already given up on the rising NFL sophomore. They or people close to them believe Lance can't hack it in the NFL. Even though everyone acknowledged the need for him to sit for a full year behind Jimmy Garoppolo.

Let's break this down even further and uncover why this conspiracy theory holds water.

There's a purpose to every leak

People don't just speak off the record because they can't keep their mouths shut and are like middle-schoolers who have a desperate desire to gossip. There's always an ulterior motive or agenda. NFL teams are so calculated. You think that with all the ridiculous hours coaches put in to overcomplicate things in efforts to out-scheme opponents that there isn't any gamesmanship going on when it comes to leaks? You expect me to think they aren't pulling strings and giving calculated, anonymous quotes without some sort of underlying objective to achieve? Yeah fucking right.

The Jimmy G Factor

Everyone knows San Francisco has zero remaining leverage when it comes to a Jimmy G trade. NFC West rival Seattle seems like the only logical destination left.

The 49ers also probably don't want to piss Garoppolo off and create the impression that he's being cast aside. He handled last year and the drafting of Lance like a consummate professional. Damn near everyone in the 49ers building still loves Jimmy G and that extends to the locker room, too.

So even though the insider information on Lance lines up from multiple media outlets, it could be the same person or select group of folks who are handing this stuff out. You can see the various layers and complications around Garoppolo, who did guide the Niners to a Super Bowl berth and NFC Championship Game appearance when healthy enough to play a (mostly) full season.

Lance's unique background weighs heavily

Think about the circumstances surrounding Lance's entry into the NFL. He was part of a dynastic FCS program at North Dakota State. Only got one year of starting experience before the COVID-19 pandemic. Then he got one gimmicky exhibition game in 2020 for the Bison. From there it was all draft prep. Then it was rightfully serving as Garoppolo's backup as a rookie, with limited practice reps to further his development.

So much is unknown about Lance, and I'm of the opinion that the 49ers like it that way. The brainiac offensive mind that Shanahan is must be exploding with possibilities about how he can create matchup advantages and capitalize on Lance's unique rushing ability. Shanahan's zone-blocking running scheme can rise to unprecedented levels with Lance's arm strength and mobility.

Say it's the preseason all you want. I won't soon forget this insane first TD Lance ever had at the pro level. He threw the ball so far and on such a line that the defense looked like they literally didn't think such a play was possible.

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What's the advantage of gassing Lance up too much at this point? Why not conspire to leak some things with kernels of truth and fuck with people by dishing out mixed signals? It makes sense to me to play both sides of this, and it's pretty hilarious.

The GOAT is keeping it real

San Francisco legend Jerry Rice recently spoke about Lance and his impressions of the 22-year-old. Rice had run some routes for Lance and gave a balanced, thoughtful take on his skill set in addition to highlighting his football intelligence, per Maiocco:

"Man, I don't know what clicked. but it was just like we were on the same page. It didn't take me long to really adapt to him and just know exactly what he was thinking and when he was going to release the football. Those underneath passes is where you need to tone it down just a bit, and that's an area he has to work on because he's a gunslinger."

Credit Lance for not just sailing every pass on the greatest wide receiver to ever do it. I'm sure he put a little extra heat on those shorter passes to show his rocket arm off a bit. Seriously though, Lance has struggled to change speeds on shorter throws. That's not some massive revelation. The notion that a player can't correct that is nonsense.

Rice has no real stake in this other than to be straight-up. His levelheaded take and objectivity despite an already-established friendship with Lance are telling. I won't be surprised if we see another leak come out that Lance is, like, hitting the dirt on every other throw in pre-training camp throwing sessions with his teammates if the 49ers are doing that sort of thing.

Why Trey Lance should be a raging success in 2022

I don't think Lance's throwing motion is as dastardly as everyone makes it out to be. A common thread between Rice's remarks and what Silver reported is Lance's intelligence. If he can grasp the intricacies of Shanahan's offense and have the wherewithal to recognize that he needs to keep fine-tuning his mechanics, there's no reason Lance — who turned 22 in May — can't keep ascending and get considerably better as a passer.

The gridiron smarts showed up for Lance in college when he managed 28 TD passes in 2019 to zero interceptions. One thing Shanahan can't stand is turnovers. Between the coach's brilliant play designs, Lance's innate wisdom not to put the ball in harm's way and the amount of skill position talent the 49ers boast, there's reason to be wildly optimistic about San Francisco making yet another deep playoff run, even in Lance's first year as the proper starter.

Let's recap some notable Shanahan achievements in his career as a play-caller:

• Matt Schaub, 2009 NFL passing yards leader
• Robert Griffin III, Rookie of the Year, NFC East crown for Washington
• Brian Hoyer (55.3% completion rate) led Browns to playoff contention in 2014
• Matt Ryan, MVP in 2016 and led the Falcons to a Super Bowl appearance
• Jimmy Garoppolo, almost a two-time NFC champion

And we're supposed to believe that a freakish talent like Lance is being buried/low-key sabotaged, and that San Francisco's brass/coaching staff is playing public head games with him by privately leaking that there are severe, genuine doubts about him at all levels of the entire football operation? Puhhh-lease.

Also worth noting: You can argue Lance ran a run-heavy offense in college, and between his transcendent talent, his status as a dual threat and the efficacy of play-action under those circumstances, he had a lot of easy throws. However, you'd be wrong. Lance averaged 11.7 air yards per attempt in 2019. In only his second career start, Lance proved he could thrive at the NFL level with a similar playing style:

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"OH BUT IT'S THE TEXANS!!" So what man. The young man can play, clearly.

Now for some points of comparison. Per PFF, Jimmy G had a 4.6% turnover-worthy play rate in 2021, albeit in a larger sample size, to Lance's 4.3%. Although the mechanical issues are real for Lance, he's also working with three of the NFL's premier yards after catch specialists in Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle. Some of that is attributable to Jimmy G's short-area precision. Then again, is he really that precise?

Whatever edge Jimmy has there, he gives ground to Lance with a lack of downfield throwing prowess. last season, Garoppolo only had a big-time throw rate of 2.3%.

Not only did Lance go higher at 3.9%, but Garoppolo's figure is more staggeringly low compared to other elite QBs such as Joe Burrow (6.4%), Josh Allen (5.7%) and Tom Brady (5.6%). Lance's chances of getting to that level someday are far better.

So yeah, call me a tin foil hat wearing freak if you want. Tell me I'm overblowing this whole thing. I'm convinced the 49ers are talking out of both sides of their collective mouth to downplay the Trey Lance hype train. I'm just saying, if Lance can figure out how to take a little off of his shorter passes and prove he's as smart as everyone's low-key intimating, he could very well vault to superstardom right away. I'm on the Trey Lance bandwagon and possibly even driving it. I'm all-in. LFG Trey. Make me look good bro no pressure.

Twitter @MattFitz_gerald