The Story Of A Monster Prop That Netted Me $5,000
I was asked to go on The Dave Portnoy Show today to talk about Bruce Arians stepping down. After a few minutes, Eddie asked about my data as he knows I've been very hot in NBA props. I crunched the numbers this morning and out of all the props and noticed that Christian Braun's assist line of 2.5 had the most glaring variance. He'd been averaging 4.8 assists per game in the tournament and had hit 4+ in 4 of his last 5 games. Digging down further, Kansas was averaging just under 27 field goals made per game in the NCAA Tournament. Braun had been assisting on just over 14% of Kansas buckets. So by my calculations, they would only need to make about 22 baskets for this to cash if that assist percentage held up.
It definitely wasn't easy, though it looked like it early. Braun literally had an assist on the first play of the game. I thought it was going to be easy money!
But he didn't get any more in the 1st half despite playing the full 20 minutes. I got a call at halftime from a very nervous Big Cat with Dave telling me to to go F myself in the background. Things weren't exactly pacing, but we were by no means in trouble. I told them I had a confidence about this and to trust the data.
The 2nd half started out well with Kansas pushing the ball. We nearly had a 3rd assist on a fast break, but Braun decided to keep it to himself, much to the displeasure of my pals in the Big Easy.
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But with just over 10 minutes left, Braun got a pass from Jalen Wilson, drove and kicked it to Remy Martin who was floating to the corner for an open 3 ball. BINGO!
The boys were pretty fired up about that one!
And so was I! Never a doubt. I ran the numbers. I trusted the data. It was a sure thing. I found this line at +115, sniffed it out, and moved it to -155 before tip. It's not every day you get a 'great job' from the boss man!
I'm ecstatic for everyone who took the bet (which was a ton of people) and all my friends that profited due to my diligent research and big brain. #ThankYouStevenCheah