Everyone Who Thinks The Seahawks Should Have Just Run Marshawn Lynch vs. The Patriots Is A Dummy
Yesterday was the seven year anniversary of Super Bowl XLIX and people are still crying about Marshawn Lynch not getting the ball on 2nd & goal here. But everyone that is pro-handoff here on this play is an armchair quarterback and a dummy! Let's walk through the drive so people can have some context as to why the correct play is to pass here.
The Patriots scored the go-ahead touchdown, a 3 yard pass from Tom Brady to Julian Edelman with 2:02 left in the game. After the extra point, they led 28-24.
The Patriots kicked it into the end zone and after a 31 yard catch Marshawn Lynch, the Seahawks were well within striking range at the Patriots 49 with 1:55 left and the two minute warning having stopped the clock. The Seahawks had plenty of time and all three timeouts, but they also had to figure out to maximize their time of possession, while not giving the ball back to Tom Brady, who would only need a Field Goal to tie. Here are the next few plays:
1:55 1st & 10 at the Patriots 49 - incomplete pass
1:50 2nd & 10 at the Patriots 49 - timeout. Russell Wilson didn't like what he saw and with the playclock running down, he called the Seahawks first timeout.
1:50 2nd & 10 at the Patriots 49 - incomplete pass in the end zone
1:41 3rd & 11 at the Patriots 49 - complete pass for 11 yards. 1st down, clock moving.
1:14 - 1st & 10 at the Patriots 38 - complete pass for 35 yards down. Juggling, confusing, miracle catch, receiver gets out of bounds, clock stopped.
1:06 - 1st & 10 at the Patriots 5 yard line - timeout. With all the confusion with the catch, the team didn't hustle down and get lined up for a playcall in time. Instead of taking a flag, they used one of their two remaining timeouts to stop the clock. They now only have one timeout remaining.
1:06 - 1st & 10 at the Patriots 5 yard line. The Seahawks run it with Marshawn Lynch. This is the point of most people's argument as Lynch gains 4 yards down to the 1 yard line. The clock is now running.
Here is what the personnel grouping looked like for that play:
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The Seahawks have 21 personnel, which means there are two Runningbacks and one Tight End. The Tight End is lined up on the left side of the line. Both their Receivers are stacked to the right. The Patriots are heavy package designed to stop the run.
At this point, notice the Patriots have two timeouts left. With 2nd down upcoming, you'd figure they'd start using them to give their offense a chance when Seattle scores. But Bill Belichick decides to let Seattle feel the pressure and makes the mistake.
This is where Seattle and Pete Carroll fell apart. The Seahawks subbed their 21 personnel package out for a speedier 11 personnel package which means 1 Runningback, 1 Tight End, and 3 Receivers, while the Patriots left their heavier personnel package in the game to stop the run. Things don't look at favorable this time around for Seattle to pound it in without the Fullback in the game.
But it's still 2nd & Goal from the 1 yard line with :26 seconds left and you have one timeout. And sure, running the ball is still an option. But if you don't get it, what do you do? Let's walk through those scenarios…
- Run it. In these scenarios, you either score a TD to win or you are still short of the end zone. If you're short, now you've got 3rd & Goal somewhere in between the 0-2 yard line and you've burned your last timeout. You can't risk letting the clock go lower because you need to get a play in and maybe two. With 3rd & Goal somewhere between the 0-2 yard line, you simply cannot run the ball unless it's a QB scrambling into the end zone on a broken play. Because if the runner is tackled, the 4th down play will be very haphazard.
-Throw it. In these scenarios, you either score a TD to win or you get an incompletion you're thinking as a playcaller. If it falls incomplete, you've got 3rd and 4th down armed with both run/pass options to prevent the defense from making your predictable. Because at the end of the day, you still need to score to win.
Obviously things didn't work out for Seattle when Malcolm Butler made one of the greatest plays in NFL History with the interception (shoutout to Brandon Browner for the jam to make it all possible). But for all the revisionist history people, I'd just like for them to answer me the questions - Where are you running it here??
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The Patriots literally had every gap covered and while it's easy to say, 'well Marshawn Lynch would have scored because he's Beastmode', Runningbacks without blocking are of no use to anyone.
Passing it was the right call situationally there. Had the Seahawks not hastily burned two of their timeouts earlier in the drive for not getting lined up in time, I'd agree that running the ball there (in a heavier set), would have been the move. But given the score and situation along with the personnel on the field for both teams, you'd have to be an absolute dunce to think that running the ball would automatically give the Seahawks the win.