Katie Stats: How to Bet Championship Weekend
John Bazemore. Shutterstock Images.
Don't let all the Lincoln Riley and Brian Kelly drama distract you from the fact that it is championship weekend! Think we can all agree that we want to see Alabama lose. But let's have ourselves a weekend.
#10 Oregon (10-2) vs. #17 Utah (9-3), 8:00pm, Las Vegas NV, Friday
Matchup: Met on 2 weeks ago and Utah won 38-7 at home.
Oregon:
#18 rushing offense at 214 ypg
#26 rushing defense at 124.33 ypg
#98 passing defense at 247.3 ypg
Utah:
#21 scoring offense at 35.3 ppg
#12 rushing offense at 218.67 ypg
#25 passing defense at 199.3 ypg
#19 total defense at 326.1 ypg
Oregon: Can they fix their issues from 2 weeks ago?
Under is 4-1 as an underdog.
Under is 10-2 in Ducks L12 after allowing less than 100 rushing yards.
Didn’t cover their L2 Pac-12 championships, and the L3 went under.
Utah: Can they not let up after beating Oregon so handedly last time?
At a neutral site, 0-4 ATS.
When favored by less than 7, 4-1 ATS.
When allowing less than 275 total yards in the previous game, 0-4 ATS.
After a spread loss, are 3-0 ATS by double digits.
#9 Baylor (10-2) vs. #5 Oklahoma State (11-1), 12:00pm, Arlington TX
Matchup: Ok State has won the L2 meetings. The most recent was on October 2nd and OK State won 24-14 at home.
Baylor:
#8 rushing offense at 227.92 ypg
#26 total offense at 446 ypg
#17 scoring defense at 19.4 ppg
#19 rushing defense at 120.67 ypg
Ok State:
#5 scoring defense at 16.4 ppg
#6 rushing defense at 93.58 ypg
#13 passing defense at 187.8 ypg
#3 total defense at 281.4 ypg
Baylor: There seems to be questions about QB Gerry Bohanon’s status for Saturday due to injury. He dressed but didn’t play last week. Did a practice walkthrough on Monday.
Their L3 went under.
At neutral sites, the under is 5-1. They were a single digit underdog in all 6.
As an underdog, the under is 6-1.
Again a ranked team, the under is 7-1. Were an underdog in all 8. 6-2 ATS.
After a spread loss, 12-0-1 ATS.
In December, the under is 5-1.
When an underdog by less than 7, the under is 6-0.
Ok State: Can they fight off that post big game win hangover?
Are 9-0-1 ATS in their L10 games.
Against ranked teams, the under is 6-1.
As a favorite, 6-0-1 ATS.
In week 14, 0-4 ATS and under is 5-0.
At neutral sites, 5-0 ATS and under is 6-1.
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#1 Georgia (12-0) vs. #3 Alabama (11-1), 4:00pm, Atlanta GA
Matchup: Alabama has won the L6 meetings from 2020 to 2006. In 2020, Alabama won 41-24 at home.
From 2007-2018, in the 6 meetings, the underdog is 6-0 ATS. In 2020, Alabama was favored by 6, and covered by 11 points.
Georgia:
#6 scoring offense at 40.7 ppg
#26 rushing offense at 202.25 ypg
#27 total offense at 442.5 ypg
#1 scoring defense at 6.9 ppg
#3 rushing defense at 78.92 ypg
#2 passing defense at 150.8 ypg
#1 total defense at 229.7 ypg
Alabama:
#5 scoring offense at 42.7 ppg
#7 passing offense at 341.8 ypg
#7 total offense at 492.2 ypg
#20 scoring defense at 19.9 ppg
#4 rushing defense at 80.58 ypg
#7 total defense at 294.2 ypg
Georgia:
At neutral site, under is 7-1.
After shutting out a team, the under is 5-0. Are 7-1 ATS, but it goes back to 2014.
After a spread win, 0-3 ATS.
When favored by single digits (against ranked teams), 5-1 ATS and under is 4-1.
Alabama: First time since 2015 that Alabama has been an underdog. This breaks an 80 game streak of being favored. Held Auburn to 159 yards last week.
As an underdog, 4-1 ATS. Stat is from 2009-2015.
After not covering against an unranked team, 4-1 ATS.
After less than 100 rushing yards, 5-0 ATS and under is 4-1.
#21 Houston (11-1) @ #4 Cincinnati (12-0), 4:00pm
Matchup: In 2020, Cincy won 38-10 at home. In 2019, Cincy won 38-23 at Houston. Cincinnati covered both.
Houston:
#9 scoring offense at 38.8 ppg
#23 passing offense at 272.4 ypg
#19 scoring defense at 19.8 ppg
#8 rushing defense at 98.33 ypg
#16 passing defense at 191.6 ypg
#6 total defense at 289.9 ypg
Cincinnati:
#8 scoring offense at 39.6 ppg
#3 scoring defense at 15.8 ppg
#3 passing defense at 161.5 ypg
#8 total defense at 303.3 ypg
Houston:
As an away underdog, 4-1 ATS.
Against a ranked team, 1-4 ATS.
At a ranked team, under is 4-0.
After a spread loss, 4-0 ATS.
Cincinnati:
Under is 5-1 in their L6.
When favored by less than 14 at home, 4-1 ATS.
After a spread win, 4-1 ATS.
Against a team with a winning record, 5-0 ATS.
After allowing less than 100 rushing yards, 10-1 ATS.
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#2 Michigan (11-1) vs. #13 Iowa (10-2), 8:00pm, Indianapolis IN
Matchup: In 2019, Michigan won 10-3 at home.
Michigan:
#13 scoring offense at 37.3 ppg
#9 rushing offense at 224.92 ypg
#19 total offense at 451.2 ypg
#8 scoring defense at 17.2 ppg
#22 rushing defense at 123 ypg
#23 passing defense at 196.3 ypg
#15 total defense at 319.2 ypg
Iowa:
#106 rushing offense at 121.17 ypg
#110 passing offense at 177.9 ypg
#123 total offense at 299.1 ypg
#9 scoring defense at 17.3 ppg
#14 rushing defense at 105.83 ypg
#14 total defense at 315.8 ypg
Michigan: Can they be full steam ahead after the big upset win? Or will they have a hangover?
4-0 ATS in their L4 games, and 7-1 ATS in their L8.
At a neutral site,1-4 ATS. Over is 8-1 but goes back to 2012.
When favored at a neutral site, over is 5-0.
Against ranked teams, over is 4-1.
When favored by more than a TD, 5-1 ATS.
After having 450+ total yards in a game, 6-0 ATS.
Iowa: If their defense keeps Michigan off of the board, will their offense be able to score enough to win? Spencer Petras is back as QB1.
L3 have gone over.
In neutral site games, 3-0 ATS and over is 3-0.
When an underdog, 5-1-1 ATS.
When an underdog by 7+. 5-1 ATS.
Against ranked teams, 7-0 ATS. Have SU won the L6.
After a spread win, under is 6-1.
#15 Pitt (10-2) vs. #16 Wake Forest (10-2), 8:00pm, Charlotte NC
Matchup: In 2018, Pitt won 34-13 at Wake.
Pitt:
#4 scoring offense at 42.8 ppg
#6 passing offense at 356.7 ypg
#4 total offense at 512.8 ypg
#5 rushing defense at 92.58 ypg
#112 passing defense at 261.1 ypg
Wake:
#3 scoring offense at 42.9 ppg
#11 passing offense at 315.5 ypg
#9 total offense at 483.6 ypg
#118 rushing defense at 209.58 ypg
#100 total defense at 427.2 ypg
Pitt: How big of an issue will that pass defense be? Pickett seems to have been dealing with the flu for a couple days earlier this week, but practiced Wednesday and is good for this weekend.
At neutral sites, 1-4 ATS.
After a spread win, 4-1 ATS.
When favored by <7, 5-0 ats.< p>
Against teams with a winning record, 5-1 ATS.
Wake Forest: How big off an issue will the lack of rush and total defense be?
As an underdog to a ranked team, 1-4 ATS and under is 3-0.
As an underdog, over is 4-1.
When an underdog by less than 7, 1-4 ATS.
After a SU win, over is 5-1.
Against a team with a winning record, over is 5-1.
My Card:
Georgia -6.5 🔒
Alabama TT u21.5
Baylor/OK State u47
Iowa TT u15.5
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Michigan -10.5
Wake/Pitt o72.5
NIU +3.5
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