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Katie Stats: How to Bet Oklahoma at Baylor and the Week 11 Slate

Alonzo Adams. Shutterstock Images.

Week 11. Let's do this shit. You know the drill, breakdowns of the games (there are 8 this week, you're welcome), my trends for smaller games, and then my card. Let's have ourselves a Saturday.

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#6 Michigan (8-1) @ Penn State (6-3), 12:00pm

  • Matchup: In 2020, PSU won 27-17 at Michigan. In 2019, PSU won 28-21 at home. In 2018, Michigan won 42-7 at home. 

    • The L6 at Penn State went over. The favorite is 6-1 ATS in the L7 meetings. 

    • Michigan: #19 scoring offense at 36.2 ppg, #7 rushing offense at 234.11 ypg, #26 total offense at 451.4 ypg, #6 scoring defense at 16 ppg, #9 passing defense at 173.4 ypg, and #6 total defense at 298.1 ypg. 

    • Penn State: has the #117 rushing offense at 107.11 ypg, #25 passing offense at 277.7 ypg, and #10 scoring defense at 16.7 ppg .

  • Michigan: Coming off of a 29-7 win over Indiana. Was only 17-7 going into the half, but Michigan shut them out for the second half. RB Blake Corum was injured, and is “real probable” for this weekend. Lost to Michigan State 37-33 the week before.

    • As the away team, 1-4 ATS and L6 went over. 

    • As an underdog, over is 6-1. 

    • As an away underdog, over is 5-1. 

    • As an underdog to an unranked team, the L6 went over. 

    • As an underdog by less than 7 points, the L5 went over. 

    • Are 0-6 ATS against a team with a winning record. 

  • Penn State: Coming off of a 31-14 win over Maryland. PSU held Maryland to 48 rushing yards, when they’re averaging 113 ypg. WR Jahan Dotson had 11 receptions for 242 yards, and 3 TDs; which was a school record. Had a bunch of inconsistent possessions. This win broke a 3 game losing streak. Lost to Ohio State 33-24 the week before. 

    • L3 went under, and under is 7-2 this year. 

    • At home, under is 4-1. 

    • As a favorite, under is 5-1. 

    • Against B10 schools, under is 5-1.

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#8 Oklahoma (9-0) @ #13 Baylor (7-2), 12:00pm

  • Matchup: Oklahoma has won the L7 meetings. In 2020, OU won 27-14 at home. In 2019, OU won 30-23 in Arlington and won 34-31 at Baylor. 

    • In the L3 meetings, Baylor covered and each went under. This is the 7th year in a row that Oklahoma is favored. 

    • Oklahoma: has the #5 scoring offense at 42.9 ppg, #20 passing offense at 295.2 ypg, #12 total offense at 476.2 ypg, #17 rushing defense at 110.89 ypg, #114 pass defense at 272.9 ypg.

    • Baylor: has the #18 scoring offense at 36.3 ppg, #8 rushing offense at 231.56 ypg, #21 total offense at 457.4 ypg, and #27 scoring defense at 20.6 ppg, 

  • Oklahoma: Coming off of a 52-21 win over Texas Tech. OU only had 72 rushing yards, when they’re averaging 181 ypg. Seems there is a growing trust in William’s arm. Caleb Williams was 23/30 for 402 yards and 6 TDs. He is learning and gaining confidence in staying in the pocket for longer. They squeaked by Kansas 35-23 the week before. 

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    • When favored by less than 7, they’re 9-0 ATS. 

    • After a bye, under is 5-1. 

    • Against ranked opponents, 5-0 ATS. 

    • Against a team with a winning record, over is 4-0.

  • Baylor: Coming off of an 30-28 upset loss to TCU. Baylor allowed TCU to have 562 yards. TCU gave up 111 penalty yards. QB Gerry Bohanon had 2 interceptions. RB Abram Smith is #8 in averaging 117.22 rushing ypg. Between the previous 2 games, Baylor only had 1 penalty, but against TCU they had 6. Beat Texas 31-24 the week before.

    • Have covered the L5 at home, and over is 4-1. 

    • As an underdog, under is 4-1. 

    • Against ranked teams, under is 6-1.

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Mississippi State (5-4) @ #17 Auburn (6-3), 12:00pm

  • Matchup: In 2020, Auburn won 24-10 at MS. In 2019, Auburn won 56-23 at home. In 2018, Mississippi State won 23-9 at home.

    • Auburn is 4-1 ATS in the L5 meetings. Auburn is 5-1 ATS at home, and over is 5-1.

    • Mississippi State: has the #130 rush offense at 56 ypg, #4 passing offense at 376.2 ypg, #11 rushing defense at 102.11 ypg, and #20 total defense at 322.1 ypg.

    • Auburn: has the #24 scoring defense at 19.8 ppg.

  • Mississippi State: Coming off of a 31-28 loss to Arkansas. Arkansas scored the go-ahead TD with 21 seconds left, and MSU missed a game tying FG. Beat Kentucky 31-17 the week before. 

    • As the away team, 5-1 ATS. 

    • As an away underdog, 4-0 ATS. 

    • After a loss, under is 7-2. 

    • When at an SEC school, 5-0 ATS.

  • Auburn: Coming off of a 20-3 loss to Texas A&M. Auburn was held to 226 total yards. The only TD in the game came off of a fumble scoop and score. RB Tank Bigsby had 69 of the team’s 73 rushing yards. Beat Ole Miss 31-20 the week before. 

    • Against SEC schools, under is 10-2. 

    • When favored vs an SEC school, 5-0 ATS and under is 6-0. 

    • As a favorite, 7-1 ATS. 

    • As a home favorite, 5-1 ATS. 

    • When favored by less than a TD, 4-0 ATS and under is 8-0. 

    • Against a team with a winning record, 0-4 ATS and under is 5-1.

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#1 Georgia (9-0) @ Tennessee (5-4), 3:30pm

  • Matchup: Georgia has won the L4. In 2020, won 44-21 at home. In 2019, won 43-14 at Tennessee. In 2018, won 38-12 at home. 

    • Georgia is 4-1 ATS in the L5 meetings. 

    • Georgia: has the #14 scoring offense at 38.4 ppg, #1 scoring defense at 6.6 ppg, #2 rushing defense at 80.67, #2 passing defense at 149.6 ypg, and #2 total defense at 230.2 ypg. 

    • Tennessee: has the #15 scoring offense at 38.2 ppg, #19 rushing offense at 217.11 ypg, #20 total offense at 457.7 ypg, and #109 passing defense at 264.7 ypg. 

  • Georgia: Coming off of a 43-6 win over Missouri. Georgia hasn’t let up more than 13 points yet this year. JT Daniels got in the game, and was 7/11 for 82 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT. Georgia Georgiaed. Beat Florida 34-7 the week before. 

    • L5 games went under. 

    • As an away team, 4-0 ATS and over is 5-1.

  • Tennessee: Coming off of a 45-42 win over Kentucky. Several times Tennessee had drives under a minute, and moved with new efficiency. Hooker had a career high 4 TDs. Kentucky’s defense couldn’t stop them. Lost to Alabama 52-24 the week before. 

    • Against teams with a winning record, under is 5-0. 

    • Against SEC teams, over is 4-1. 

    • When an underdog to an SEC team, 2-7 ATS. 

    • After a win, 1-5 ATS. 

    • As an underdog, 1-5 ATS. 

    • As a home underdog, 1-4 ATS and under is 4-1. 

    • As a dog by 14+, under is 4-1.

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#19 Purdue (6-3) @ #5 Ohio State (8-1), 3:30pm

  • Matchup: In 2018, Purdue won 49-20 at home. 

    • Purdue: has the #128 rushing offense at 76.78 ypg, #8 passing offense at 332.6 ypg, #16 scoring defense at 18.4 ppg, 

    • Ohio State: has the #2 scoring offense at 44.9 ypg, #6 passing offense at 352.8 ypg, #2 total offense at 541.8 ypg, #19 scoring defense at 19 ppg, #16 rushing defense at 107.56 ypg, and #96 passing defense at 247.2 ypg.

  • Purdue: Coming off of a 40-29 upset win over Michigan State. Purdue has 17 wins over top 5 teams as an unranked team. (Now unranked, but still a notable stat.) Aiden O’Connell went 40/54 for 536 yards and 3 TDs. WR David Bell had 11 receptions for 217 yards, the next man up had 80 yards. The beat Nebraska 28-23 the week before. 

    • As an away team, under is 4-0. 

    • As an away underdog, 5-1 ATS and under is 11-1. 

    • When an underdog by 14+, 6-0 ATS and under is 5-1. 

    • Against a ranked team, 7-2 ATS and under is 4-1. 

    • In all games since 2020, under is 11-4.

  • Ohio State: Coming off of a close 26-17 win over Nebraska. CJ Stroud was 36/54 for 405 yards, 2 TDs, and 2 INTs. WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba had 240 yards. Was a bad second half for them, but they pulled out a win. Beat Penn State 33-24 the week before.

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    • In games played in November, 1-5 ATS.

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#11 Texas A&M (7-2) @ #15 Ole Miss (7-2), 7:00pm

  • Matchup: A&M has won the L3 meetings. In 2019, 24-17 at Ole Miss. In 2018, 38-24 at home. In 2017, 31-24 at Ole Miss. 

    • The L6 meetings went under. A&M has covered the L3 meetings.

    • Texas A&M: has the #2 scoring defense at 14.7 ppg, #28 rushing defense at 123.11 ypg, #25 passing defense at 194.7 ypg, and #17 total defense at 317.8 ypg. 

    • Ole Miss: has the #16 scoring offense at 37.8 ppg, #5 rushing offense at 237.89 ypg, #21 passing offense at 286.3 ypg, #4 total offense at 524.2 ypg, #108 rushing defense at 195.33 ypg, and #104 total defense at 432.7 ypg. 

  • Texas A&M: Coming off of a 20-3 win over Auburn. Held Auburn to 226 yards, of which 73 were rushing. Just overall shut Auburn’s offense down. Beat South Carolina 44-14 the game before.

    • Have covered their L4 games. 

    • As an away team, 5-0 ATS and over is 8-2. 

    • When favored by less than a TD, under is 5-1. 

    • As an away favorite, 8-0 ATS and under is 7-1.

  • Ole Miss: Coming off of a 27-14 win over Liberty. They were helped by Malik Willis throwing 3 interceptions, no TDs, and was sacked 9 times. There are some questions about what receivers will be available this weekend. Lost to Auburn 31-20 the week before.

    • Their L4 games went under, and under is 6-3 for the season. 

    • After a win, the L4 went under. 

    • As an underdog, 0-4 ATS and under is 4-0. 

    • When an underdog by less than 7, the L7 went under. 

    • Against a team with a winning record, under is 4-0. 

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#16 NC State (7-2) @ #12 Wake Forest (8-1), 7:30pm

  • Matchup: In 2020, NC won 45-42 at home. In 2019, Wake won 44-10 at home. In 2018, Wake won 27-23 in Kentucky. 

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    • When at Wake, Wake is 9-1 ATS. When Wake comes into the matchup after a loss, over is 5-1.

    • NC State: has the #24 passing offense at 278.1 ypg, #6 scoring defense at 16 ppg, #8 rushing defense at 99.22 ypg, and #19 total defense at 320.1 ypg. 

    • Wake Forest: has the #3 scoring offense at 44.7 ppg, #11 passing offense at 321.1 ypg, #8 total offense at 508.8 ypg, #121 rushing defense at 216.11 ypg, and #105 total defense at 435.4 ypg. 

  • NC State: Coming off of a 28-14 win over FSU. NC State had 86 rushing yards and FSU had 38. Leary matched a season high with 4 TDs. Held FSU to 2 of 16 on 3rd down conversions. Beat Louisville 28-13 the week before.

    • As an underdog, 4-1 ATS and over is 6-0-1. 

    • Against ranked teams, 1-6 ATS and over is 4-0. 

    • Against ACC schools, 5-1 ATS. 

    • When an underdog to ACC schools, over is 6-0-1. 

    • Are 8-0 ATS after having 280+ yards passing in their previous game.

  • Wake Forest: Coming off of a 58-55 loss to UNC. Both teams had over 100 yards of penalties. Allowed UNC’s Ty Chandler to have 213 rushing yards and 4 TDs, and Howell to have 100+ rushing yards. Beat Duke 45-7 the week before.

    • At home, 9-2 ATS and under is 5-1. 

    • When a favorite by less than a TD, over is 6-1. 

    • Against ACC schools at home, 8-0 ATS. 

    • After a loss, over is 4-0. 

    • Have SU won their L8 home games.

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#9 Notre Dame (8-1) @ Virginia (6-3), 7:30pm

  • Matchup: In 2019, ND won 35-20 at home.

    • Notre Dame: is #118 in sacks allowed per game at 3.11.

    • Virginia: has the #11 scoring offense at 38.9 ppg, #2 passing offense at 401 ypg, #1 total offense at 545.2 ypg, #102 scoring defense at 30.8 ppg, #122 rushing defense at 219.11 ypg, #95 pass defense at 247.1 ypg, and #122 total defense at 466.2 ypg.

  • Notre Dame: Coming off of a 34-6 win over Navy. Held them to 184 total yards, of which only 18 were passing. Just a gross game. Jack Coan was 23/29 for 269 yards with only 1 TD. Lost their 3rd WR (in yardage) for the season due to an ACL tear. Beat UNC 44-34 the week before. 

    • Have covered their L4 games. 

    • When a favorite by less than a TD, 6-1 ATS. 

    • After holding an opponent to under 7 points, are 0-8 ATS. 

    • Against unranked teams, 5-0 ATS.

  • Virginia: QB Brennan Armstrong is listed as day to day. He injured his ribs 2 weeks ago vs BYU. Come off of a bye week. Lost to BYU 66-49 the week before. UVA let up 734 yards offense and 2 interceptions. BYU RB had 266 rushing yards for 5 TDs, and couldn’t be stopped. Virginia has a very good offense, but no defense in sight. Beat Georgia Tech 48-40 the week before. 

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    • After a bye, 6-1 ATS and 6-0 ATS with a rest advantage. 

    • Against ranked teams, over is 6-1. 

    • In November, 5-0 ATS and over is 9-1.

My trends for some of the smaller games:

Week 11 Picks (so far)

Oklahoma -5.5 🔒

Texas A&M/Ole Miss u57.5

Northwestern TT u7.5

Syracuse +3.5

Miami -2.5

Penn State +1.5

More will be posted on my Twitter, I'm still building my card. If you do gamble, please do so responsibly.