How to Bet Iowa State vs. Ok State and the Shitty Week 8 Slate
Brian Bahr. Getty Images.Week 8. The slate SUCKS, even more than last week which I didn't realize would be possible. But hopefully this means that we'll get some great games. We're all headed to Bloomington for this weekend and I'm super excited to see Pup Punk live and another live show. May your team cover and your bets win.
#5 Ohio State @ Indiana, 7:30pm
Matchup: Ohio State has won the L28 (2 have been vacated) games. In 2020, won 42-35 at home. In 2019, won 51-10 at Indiana. In 2018, won 49-26 at home.
Ohio State has the #2 scoring offense at 48.5 ppg, #22 rushing offense at 210.5 ypg, #9 passing offense at 352.2 ypg, and the #1 total offense at 562.7 ypg. Ohio State does have the #103 passing defense at 256 ypg allowed. Indiana has the #107 scoring offense at 22.3 ppg, and #107 total offense at 340 ypg.
The L4 meetings have gone over. The road team is 5-0 ATS.
Ohio State: Is coming off of a bye week. The week before they beat Maryland 66-17. CJ Stroud was 24/33 for 406 yards and 5 TDs. RB Treveyon Henderson is separating himself as RB1 by a solid gap. Since the loss to Oregon, they’ve been winning games by 40.25 points on average.
On the road (and as a road favorite), the over is 6-0-1, and are 7-1-1 ATS. Are 7-0 ATS in October games since 2019. Have SU won their L11 games as an away favorite. When favored by 17+ on the road, the over is 7-1-1.
Indiana: Coming off of a 20-15 loss to Michigan State in a punt heavy game. It was Indiana’s first game without Michael Penix Jr at QB; Jack Tuttle was 28/52 for 188 yards with 2 INTS. The team only had 134 rushing yards, so not a great display of offense anywhere.
Are 1-5 ATS on the season. At home, the over is 4-1. As an underdog, are 0-4 ATS this season. Against ranked teams, the under is 4-1. Under is 5-0 in the L5 conference games.
Tennessee @ #4 Alabama, 7:00pm
Matchup: Alabama has won the L14. In 2020, won 48-17 at Tennessee. In 2019, won 35-13 at home. In 2018, won 58-21 at Tennessee.
Tennessee has the #11 scoring offense at 39.3 ppg, #6 rushing offense at 249.14 ypg, #81 passing offense at 223.9 ypg, and #16 total offense at 473 ypg. Alabama has the #4 scoring offense at 45 ppg, #13 passing offense at 316.1 ypg, and #12 total offense at 482.6 ypg. Alabama has the #12 rushing defense at 93.14 ypg, and the #18 total defense at 303.3 ypg. (Tenn rushing O and total O vs. Bama’s rushing D and total D)
Alabama is 4-1 ATS in the L5 meetings.
Tennessee: Coming off of a 31-26 loss to Ole Miss at home. QB Hendon Hooker had 233 yards through the air, averaged 8.4 yards per pass, and had 108 yards on the ground. He is listed as day to day for this weekend. They allowed Matt Corral to rush for 195 yards, but did force him to have this first INT of the season. Beat South Carolina 45-20 the week before.
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Are 1-6 ATS against ranked teams, and under is 6-1. When away at a ranked team, are 1-4 ATS and the under is 4-1. Have covered the L4 after a loss. When an underdog by more than 14, the under is 4-0. As an underdog, are 2-6 ATS. Since 2020, in all games, are 6-10-1 ATS.
Alabama: Coming off of a 49-9 win over Mississippi State. They held MSU to 3 FGs, -1 rushing yards, and intercepted Will Rogers 3 times. Clearly going scorched earth after their 41-38 loss to Texas A&M. Bryce Young averaged 12.4 yards per pass.
As a home (and home favorite), are 8-1 ATS. Against SEC teams, are 10-5 ATS.
LSU @ #12 Ole Miss, 3:30pm
Matchup: LSU has won the L5. In 2020, won 53-48 at home. In 2019, won 58-37 at MS. In 2018, won 45-16 at home.
LSU has the #103 rushing offense at 117.29 ypg, and the #29 passing offense at 272.7 ypg. Ole Miss has the #5 scoring offense at 43.7 ppg, #4 rushing offense at 262.83 ypg, #19 passing offense at 290.2 ypg, and #3 total offense at 553 ypg. Ole Miss has the #111 rushing defense at 198.33 ypg and #107 total defense at 438 ypg.
The L4 meetings have gone over. LSU is 4-1 ATS. Home team is 7-1 ATS.
LSU: Coach O has been announced as out after this year. Does he care for the rest of this year, or is he checked out? Coming off of an upset win 49-42 win over Florida. LSU had 133 passing yards to 321 rushing, and allowed Florida to essentially do the opposite. Florida came into the game allowing only 108.5 rushing ypg. LSU was helped out by Florida throwing 4 interceptions. LSU pulled off the win without its top CBs, receiver, and other key players.
The L5 as an underdog have gone over. Since 2020, they’re 4-1 ATS against ranked teams. Against ranked teams, over is 5-2.
Ole Miss: Coming off of a 31-26 win over Tennessee. Matt Corral had 231 passing and 195 rushing yards, but his status for the weekend seems up in the air?? There were 23 injury stoppages for Ole miss. Beat Arkansas 52-21 the week before.
Have won the L13 SU as a home favorite. Against unranked teams, the over is 4-1, and are 3-0-1 ATS.
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#10 Oregon @ UCLA, 3:30pm
Matchup: In 2020, Oregon won 38-35 at home. In 2018, Oregon won 42-21 at home. In 2017, UCLA won 31-17 at home.
Oregon has the #23 rushing offense at 210.33 ypg, and the #110 passing defense at 270.5 ypg. UCLA has the #17 rushing offense at 220.14 ypg, #9 rushing defense at 91 ypg, and #122 passing defense at 290.1 ypg. (Oregon’s rushing O vs. UCLA’s rushing D. Neither defends the pass.)
Oregon: Coming off of a 24-17 win over Cal. Cal had a 7 point lead at the start of the 4th, and Oregon had a needed 2 TD run. QB Anthony Brown averaged 8.7 yards. RB Travis Dye led the team with 45 rushing yards and 73 receiving yards. OC Joe Moorhead has been cleared to travel with the team. They had a bye week, and lost to Stanford 31-24 in OT the week before.
Are 1-5 ATS this season, and haven’t covered the L4. The L4 away games went under. The L4 games as an underdog have gone under. As an away underdog, the under is 5-1. Haven’t covered the L7 against unranked teams. In all games since 2020, are 4-9 ATS. Are 1-4 ATs with a rest advantage.
UCLA: Coming off of a 24-17 win over Washington. Washington only had 267 total yards, which was a season low for them. Washington’s Dylan Morris threw 2 INTs. UCLA won without their top WR Kyle Philips. RB Zach Charbonnet is averaging 99.57 ypg.
Are 5-2 ATS for the season. Have SU lost the L2 games as a home favorite. The L4 against ranked opponents went over. At home, the over is 5-1. After a win the over is 5-2.
#8 Oklahoma State @ Iowa State, 3:30pm
Matchup: In 2020, Ok State won 24-21 at home. In 2019, Ok State won 34-27 at Ames. In 2018, Iowa State won 48-42 at OK.
Ok State has the #16 rushing defense at 98.83 ypg and #19 total defense at 307.2 ypg. Iowa State has the #12 scoring defense at 16.3 ppg, #14 rushing defense at 97.67 ypg, #4 passing defense at 152.7 ypg, and #3 total defense at 250.3 ypg.
Underdog is 5-1 ATS in the L6.
Oklahoma State: Coming off of a 32-24 comeback and upset win over Texas. Ok State was down 24-13 early in the 2nd half and had a 19 point comeback to win. Found a way to shut down Bijan Robinson in the 2nd half. RB Jaylen Warren had 193 rushing yards, and is the only running threat besides Spencer Sanders. Had a bye week, and beat Baylor 24-14 the week before.
Have covered their L4 games, and the under is 4-1 for the season. As an away team, the L6 have gone under. As an underdog, the L8 games have gone under, and are 10-2 ATS. L5 as an away underdog have gone under, and are 5-1 ATS. In all games since 2020, the under is 11-5-1.
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Iowa State: Coming off of a 33-20 win over Kansas State. They broke a 7 game losing streak at KSU. RB Breece Hall had 197 yards, he is 6th nationally averaging 124.67 ypg. The offensive line allowed for Purdy to have time to be 22/25 for 208 yards. Had a bye week, and beat Kansas 59-7 the week before.
L3 have gone over. Against ranked teams, the L8 have gone under, and is 12-1 in the L13. As a home favorite the under is 5-2-1.
My Picks for Week 8:
Ok state/Iowa st u47.5 🔒
Michigan/NU o51
LSU +9
Notre Dame -6.5
NC State -3.5
Wisco/purdue u40
Illinois TT u10.5
Army/wake u52
Army +3
Air Force/SDSU u40
Cincy -27.5
Will add PSU/Ill u46.5 (or whatever the number is at the time) if/when Sean Clifford is ruled officially out.
If you do gamble, please do so responsibly.