Lamar Jackson At Home Plus Justin Herbert On The Road Equals Points, Points, And More Points
Welcome back to the Stats Lab. Every Sunday morning during the NFL season, I'll be blogging the stats I used on Barstool Sports Advisors each week, plus some other ones I found from my research for each game we covered. Whenever I pour through the data each week, I try to separate the meaningful trends from the nonsensical ones. For example, a team with a really good ATS record against a specific division (not their own)? Probably doesn't matter that much. Teams are always changing, and there's nothing that suggests all the same teams in a division play a certain way or anything. But a coach being really good off a bye week? That says something. A team covering a lot as a road dog? Probably means they're being consistently undervalued. League wide trends that hold steady across hundreds of matchups spanning years and years? Those are also something you want to look at. So it's all a case by case basis.
Below is my entire cheat sheet I use for Advisors each week. Lines courtesy of the Barstool Sportsbook, subject to change from the time I compiled this (Friday). I'll also be giving a pick or two for each game based on what the stats say and keeping track of my year long record (1-4 last week, 13-16 YTD) - honestly I shouldn't count 2 of those last week as losses. I didn't know God was interfering. Over 23.5 points for the Bengals? They had 22 and that moron kicker missed 2 kicks at the end. Jets/Falcons under 46? Trending under all game until the Jets decided to kick a field goal with like 30 seconds left to make it 27-20. Two brutal losses. But as a man of honor I'll count them against my record.
Green Bay Packers (4-1, 4-1 ATS) @ Chicago Bears (3-2, 3-2 ATS)
1 PM on FOX
GB -6.5
T 44.5
Look, we all know that Aaron Rodgers dominates the Bears. He's 18-7 ATS lifetime against the Bears, as well as 9-3 ATS in Chicago. If you want to bet just based on that, the play is obviously the Packers. But I am giving some hope to Bears fans. The Bears are 14-6-1 ATS in their last 21 as a home underdog. And Matt Nagy is 8-5 ATS at home playing against .500 or better teams. The stats can make an argument for both sides here, but I like the value on the home dog.
The Stats Say: Bears
Los Angeles Chargers (4-1, 4-1 ATS) @ Baltimore Ravens (4-1, 2-3 ATS)
1 PM on CBS
BAL -2.5
T 51.5
Justin Herbert on the road and Lamar Jackson at home is good news for the over. Overs are 7-2 in Justin Herbert’s road career (Chargers averaging 27 PPG, 54 PPG total). And overs are 6-1 in the Ravens last 7 home games (Ravens averaging 31 PPG, 54 PPG total). I'm just sticking to the total here, but here's another bonus stat anyway. Sometimes people worry about west coast teams flying east for 1 PM games. But that hasn't been a problem for Herbert. He's 4-2 ATS when playing in the Eastern time zone at 1 PM.
The Stats Say: Over
Arizona Cardinals (5-0, 4-1 ATS) @ Cleveland Browns (3-2, 3-2 ATS)
4:05 PM on FOX
CLE -3.5
T 49.5
A tale of two quarterbacks here. Kyler Murray is 9-3-2 ATS as a road underdog in his career. He's won 7 of those 14 games outright. Meanwhile, in Baker Mayfield’s 22 career games against a team with a winning record, he has covered just 6 times (6-15-1 ATS). I also like the Cardinals team total. It's just 23.5 points. Their offense has been explosive this year despite a down game last week. They are averaging 31 PPG on season, and look what the Chargers just did to the Browns defense last week. If you're going to take the Cardinals to cover, you have to assume they're scoring at least 24 points.
The Stats Say: Cardinals and Cardinals team total over
Dallas Cowboys (4-1, 5-0 ATS) @ New England Patriots (2-3, 2-3 ATS)
4:25 PM on CBS
DAL -4
T 51
I simply don't understand how the total is so high here. In the Patriots 11 home games during the Post Brady era, the under is 9-2 with those games averaging a total of just 39 points. And only 3 of the Patriots 21 games since Brady left have gone over 51 points. The last time was almost a year ago - November 9, 2020. Maybe the play is TOO obvious which scares me, but we're rolling with it anyway.
The Stats Say: Under
Seattle Seahawks (2-3, 2-3 ATS) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (2-3, 2-3 ATS)
8:20 PM on NBC
PIT -5.5
T 43
Nighttime games have been tough for Big Ben as he gets older. Roethlisberger is just 2-8 ATS in his last 10 primetime games, which includes 3 straight double digit losses where the Steelers have scored a total of 35 points. The Steelers are also 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite. This does require you to bet on Geno Smith though so proceed with caution.
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The Stats Say: Seahawks
Tommy Teaser Of The Week (2-3 YTD): Lions +10 and Pats/Cowboys under 58. The best 0-5 team I've ever seen and I already explained the under pick. Can be had at -120 on the Barstool Sportsbook. Slight juice but it's worth it.
If you missed this week's Advisors, make sure to catch up here to get all your winners before kickoff.