Katie Stats: How to Bet Wisconsin v. Notre Dame and the Week 4 Slate
Charlie Neibergall. Shutterstock Images.I'm writing this at 6:34am in JFK waiting for my flight to Chicago for this weekend. I'll be very honest; no words of wisdom or fun stuff to write for the intro. My mind is dead right now. I will say, make sure to submit your picks in Play Barstool for this weekend's games. Just 10 over under picks, it will take you only a minute, and you could win $25,000. What is stopping you…? May your team win and cover, and all your bets hit. If you're in Chicago this weekend, I hope to see you at our live show and please say hi. So without further ado, I'll shut up, go find some coffee, and let you get to the games you really came for.
#12 Notre Dame vs. #18 Wisconsin, @ Soldier Field, 12pm (opened as a PK, 47.5)
Matchup: Last met in 1964. If Notre Dame wins, Brian Kelly will pass Knute Rockne for most wins in program history. This is Jack Coan’s revenge game; came from Wisconsin.
Notre Dame: Coming off of a 27-13 win over Purdue. They held Purdue to only 57 rushing yards, and caught 2 interceptions. S Kyle Hamilton is their best player. Notre Dame is 115th in rushing ypg at 105.67, and 20th in passing ypg at 302.
Are 10-3 ATS against ranked teams. Are 3-1 ATS as an underdog.
At a neutral site, are 6-1 for the under. Against ranked teams the under is 3-1. As an underdog to a ranked team the under is 6-1. With a rest disadvantage, the under is 6-3.
Wisconsin: Coming off of a bye week. This is their first ranked matchup since losing to #19 Penn State 16-10 in week 1. They’re 10th in rushing offense at 266 ypg, but 108th in passing offense at 175.5 ypg. On the defensive side: 11th in scoring defense at 11.5 ppg, 1st in rushing defense at 33 ypg, and 2nd in total defense at 194.5 ypg.
The under is 6-1 in their L7 games. Against ranked teams the under is 4-0. Since 2019, in regular season games the under is 13-8. Over is 6-1 after a bye week.
In non-conference games, they’re 5-1 ATS. They haven’t covered the L4 games against ranked teams, and are 3-9 ATS since 2018.
Dating back to 2015, they’re 20-3 SU against non-conference teams. They have lost SU their L4 games against ranked teams, and since 2018 they’re 3-9 SU.
#9 Clemson @ NC State. 3:30pm (opened Clemson -12)
Matchup: Clemson has won the L8. In 2019, won 55-10 at NC. In 2018, won 41-7 at home. In 2017, won 38-31 in NC.
Clemson: Coming off of an ugly, lightning delayed, 14-8 win over Georgia Tech. GT had more offensive yards and a better yards per pass. Clemson had more rushing yards than passing. DJ didn’t have any TDs, the 2 came from RB Will Shipley. Clemson is last in the ACC in offensive ypg, and are the only team to not hit 1,000 yards for the season.
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Haven’t covered their L4 games.
Their L3 have gone under, and on a 5-1 streak for the under. Since 2020, in regular season games they’re 5-9 ATS.
As an away favorite
NC State: Coming off of a 45-7 win over Furman. They lost to Mississippi State 24-10 the week prior. QB Devin Leary was 23/29 with 3 TDs. They have lost their best LB and good DB for the season due to injury.
As an underdog the over is 6-1, as a home underdog, the over is 4-1. Against a ranked team, the over is 3-1. Against ACC teams the over is 7-3.
At home, they’re 7-1 ATS. As an underdog, they’re 5-2 ATS. Against ACC teams, they’re 7-3 ATS.
#7 Texas A&M vs. #16 Arkansas @ Arlington, 3:30pm
Matchup: Texas A&M has won the L9. In 2020, won 42-31 at home. 2019, won 31-27 at Arlington. 2018, won 24-17 at Arlington.
Arkansas has covered the L3.
Texas A&M: Coming off of a 34-0 win over New Mexico. The week prior they struggled to get a 10-7 win at Colorado, who went on to have only 63 total offensive yards vs. Minnesota in Week 3. With Haynes King still out, Zach Calzada had his first start; wnet 19/33, with 3 TDs and 1 INT. RB Isaiah Spiller is leading the offense. A&M has the nation’s top scoring defense at only 5.7 ppg, and 1st in passing defense at 77.3 ypg.
The L3 games have gone under. The L3 games against ranked teams have gone over. At a neutral site the under is 3-1. As a favorite, the under is 8-3. All games since 2019 are 17-9 for the under.
Are 5-1 ATS in their L6 games. Are 1-3 ATS at neutral sites.
Arkansas: Coming off of a 45-10 win over Georgia Southern, where they had 633 yards of offense and held Georgia Southern to only 81 passing yards. Their biggest win so far was 40-21 over Texas the week before. They’re 8th in rushing offense with 282.33 ypg, and 12th in passing defense at 142 ypg.
Are 3-0 ATS 3-0 for the over in their games this year. Since 2020, they’re 10-3 ATS in all games. After a win the over is 5-0 (after a loss the under is 5-1).
Against ranked teams, they’re 5-2 ATS, even since 2019 they’re 7-4 ATS. Against SEC teams, they’re 7-3 ATS. As an underdog, they’re 8-3 ATS.
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Rutgers @ #19 Michigan, 3:30pm
Matchup: Michigan has won the L6 meetings. In 2020, won 48-42 3OT at Rutgers. In 2019, won 52-0 at home. In 2018, won 42-7 at Rutgers.
The L7 have gone over.
Both Michigan and Rutgers are 3-0 ATS this season. Both have allowed 11.3 ppg.
Rutgers: Coming off of a 45-13 win over Delaware at home. They held Delaware to 98 passing yards. QB Noah Vedral was 21/26 for 323 yards and 2 TDs. The only time Rutgers has seemed shaky was at Syracuse the week before; after no one scored in the first half, Rutgers won 17-7. Their top DB Max Melton is suspended for off the field activity.
Are 6-0 ATS as the away team, and 4-0 ATS as an away underdog.
The over is 5-2 against ranked teams, and 3-1 as an away underdog.
Since 2020, they’re 3-1 SU as an away underdog.
Michigan: Coming off of a 63-10 win over NIU at home. Only 1 TD was through the air, 8 TDs were rushing and split between 4 players. RB Blake Corum had an excellent game with 3 TDs and 125 yards on 13 carries. They held NIU to 46 passing yards, and 162 rushing yards. On the season, Michigan averages 350.3 rushing yards to 164.3 passing yards.
As a home favorite, they’re 12-5 ATS. Since 2020, against Big 10 teams, they’re 1-5 ATS. They’re 0-4 ATS against a team with a winning record.
As a home favorite, the under is 3-1. After a win the under is 3-1. At home the under is 4-2.
West Virginia @ #4 Oklahoma , 7:30pm (opened Oklahoma -19.5, 59.5)
Matchup: Oklahoma has won the L8. In 2019, won 52-14 at home. In 2018, won 59-56 at WVU. In 2017, won 59-31 at home.
Oklahoma is 5-0 ATS, and the L6 have gone over.
West Virginia: Coming off of a 27-21 win over Virginia Tech. WVU was up 27-7 and allowed VT to nearly close the gap. Their only loss this season was from Week 1 against Maryland, 30-24. RB Leddie Brown is leading the offense.
As an underdog the under is 10-3-1, and as an away underdog, the under is 6-1-1. Against ranked opponents the under is 3-1-1.
As the away team, they’re 1-4 ATS.
Oklahoma: Coming off of a scary 23-16 win over Nebraska at home. They held Nebraska to 95 rushing yards, but allowed Adrian Martinez to average 11.6 yards per throw. Spencer Rattler was 24/34 with only 1 TD. The offense is 6th in scoring at 46.3 ppg.
Since 2020, are 6-3 ATS vs. B12 teams.
Under is 4-0 after holding a team to under 20 points, and the under is 4-0 after holding a team to under 100 rushing yards.
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Tennessee @ #11 Florida, 7pm (opened Florida -14.5)
Matchup: Florida has won the L4. When hosting, Florida has won the L8. In 2020, won 31-19 in TN. In 2019, won 34-3 at home. In 2018, won 47-21 in TN.
Tennessee: Coming off of a 56-0 win over Tennessee Tech, who was held to 35 rushing yards. They lost to Pitt 41-34 at home the week before. With Joe Milton injured, QB Hendon Hooker (ex-VT) led the Vols last week with 199 passing yards. Are T5th in rushing defense at 54.33 ypg. It does seem that Joe Milton will be available against Florida.
As an underdog, they’re 1-5 ATS. Against ranked teams, they’re 1-4 ATS. Even back to 2017, they’re 6-11 ATS against ranked teams.
Against ranked teams the under is 4-1. Against SEC teams, the under is 7-3. Since 2020, the under is 8-5 in all games.
Against ranked teams they’re 0-8 SU.
Florida: Coming off of a 31-29 loss to Alabama at home. QB Emory Jones played the whole time, as Anthony Richardson remained on the bench. Florida had 440 yards, whereas Alabama only had 331. They held Alamaba to 91 rushing yards. After 2 iffy first games, they had a great showing against Alabama. Florida is 2nd in rushing offense with 340.33 ypg, and 8th in total offense at 552.7 ypg.
Against SEC teams, the over is 8-4. Over is 6-0 against a team with a winning record.
As a favorite, are 3-7-1 ATS.
Tinkering got to best of me, so I put out my card earlier this week. I divided it into 3 categories of "Loves", "Likes" and "Sprinkles" to help divide up the picks. You'll have to click the tweet to see the Sprinkles. (Hello cross platform promotion.) I'm also the biggest fan of the Pick Em Parlay this weekend, so hello South Carolina, Arizona State and LA Tech. #ThankYouDavePortnoy
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Also new this week is this thread I've been putting together. It is by no means inclusive, but it is a combination of some stats, trends, and player updates. There are some trends in there for some of the smaller games too. I hope to keep adding to it until Saturday kickoff.
As always, if you do gamble, please do so responsibly. Go Gamecocks!