Win Total Wednesday Has Me Fired Up For College Football!
For the last 6 weeks on Picks Central, each of us has picked a college football team’s win total for the 2021 season. This has become a fun weekly tradition and has me excited for kickoff in a few short weeks. Let’s go through my picks and logic so far.
All odds are from the Barstool Sportsbook.
Under 11.5 Wins Alabama
As dominant as the Crimson Tide are under Saban, they still lost A TON off last year’s title team. The Tide are breaking in a new QB (Bryce Young) and lots of new skill position players after losing 1st round picks in QB Mac Jones, RB Najee Harris and WRs Devonta Smith and Jaylen Waddle. Alabama tends to reload with their stout recruiting but this is still a lot to replace. They also lost superstar OC Steve Sarkisian and replaced him with Bill O’Brien which is a downgrade. They will be really strong at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball and the defense will improve. With games against Miami (FL) in Atlanta, at Florida, Ole Miss, at Texas A&M, LSU and at Auburn I predict they slip up at some point on the journey.
Over 4 Wins Louisiana Tech
This is an absurdly low total for Skip Holtz’s team. They have been a perennial bowl team since 2015. I hopped on this immediately after the news of former Oklahoma and West Virginia QB Austin Kendall is transferring to Tech. QB play was the major concern. The Bulldogs always have good coaching and some athletes on defense. Tech should have no problem winning 5 games in weak Conference USA. I see winnable games against SE Louisiana, North Texas, at UTEP, at Old Dominion, Southern Miss and at Rice on their schedule. They might end up 6-6 but the Bulldogs make it 8 straight years in a row reaching the postseason.
Under 9 Wins Florida
Dan Mullen is a great QB coach and offensive mind but it will not be easy for the Gators to replace the threes some of QB Kyle Trask, WR Kendarius Toney and TE Kyle Pitts who were all high NFL draft picks. Florida has to go to LSU and hosts Alabama in SEC West crossover games plus the Gators play Georgia in Jacksonville. QB Emory Jones is athletic but unproven and the defense regressed badly last fall. I do expect the defense to improve but I am banking on the Gators losing those 3 tough games. They also have tricky road trips to Missouri and Kentucky. Feels like an 8-4 or 7-5 season is coming to me while they reload the offense.
Under 7 Wins Auburn
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I am not a believer at all in Auburn QB Bo Nix and I am not blown away by the Bryan Harsin hire from Boise State. Harsin is from Idaho and has no Southern ties either. Auburn does have 4 OL returning and will ride the legs of star RB Tank Bigsby. Derrick Mason replaces Kevin Steele as DC and Auburn is switching schemes. The defense should still be good but with brutal games at Penn State, at LSU, Georgia, at Texas A&M and Alabama plus hosting Ole Miss & at Ark the Tigers are going to have a hard time finding 8 wins in Harsin’s first fall in the SEC.
Under 9.5 Wins Miami (FL)
The Hurricanes open with Alabama in Atlanta. With a loss in their opener, they will have to go 10-1 the rest of the way to cash this over. While they do have a stud QB in D’Eriq King, he is coming off a torn ACL in the bowl game and the defense struggled a lot last fall. Miami has a tough road trip to North Carolina as well as games against App State, Virginia, NC State at Pittsburgh, at Florida State and Virginia Tech. Hard to believe a 9-3 season is still a win for the under with this schedule and their inconsistency.
Over 8.5 Wins LSU (Now 8)
I felt better about this one 6 weeks ago but I still like the Tigers to bounce back from a rough 5-5 2020 season where everything went wrong. Coach O bombed the Co-ordinator hires of Scott Linehan and Bo Pelini so bad last offseason and both are now gone. Sophomore QB Max Johnson showed tons of promise in wins against Florida and Ole Miss at the end of last season. With news of señior QB Myles Brennan’s broken arm, Max should take the job and run with it. Sophomore WR Kayshon Boutte broke the SEC record with over 300 yards in the rain against Ole Miss and is going to be a star. The Tigers return a ton on both the OL and DL after struggling some last year. The defense will also feature the top CB tandem in America in Derek Stingley and Elias Ricks. I am banking on new OC Jake Peetz (Carolina Panthers QB coach) and Duronte Jones (Vikings DB coach) being massive upgrades. I feel good about Peetz and Jones is a mystery at this point. The schedule is tough with opener at UCLA, at Miss State, Auburn, at Kentucky, Florida, at Ole Miss, at Alabama and Texas A&M but the Tigers win 9 games.
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Only 24 days until college football kickoff. Man I love the fall!