Every Single Damn Thing You Need To Know About Today's Belmont Stakes

Reags6/05/2021 3:35 PM

I know the Belmont sort of loses its luster when there's no Triple Crown at stake, but it's still a hell of a race. More importantly we still have an entire day of racing. That's what it's all about. Very few things better than having a day where you have a bunch of stake races and big time horses running. We had it this past Monday with Lone Star and Santa Anita and get it today at Belmont. As always we'll run through all the horses, make some picks and try to win some money like we did at Preakness.

The Track

Al Bello. Getty Images.

The Big Sandy. One of the most well-known tracks, especially the dirt in America. Everyone knows where Belmont is just outside of NYC. It's sort of the perfect finale to the Triple Crown when you get the Twin Spires at Churchill, the beautiful dump at Pimlico and then Belmont. The race itself? The longest of the Triple Crown at a mile and a half. Not shockingly Secretariat has the race record at this length at 2:24.

What a monster of a horse.

The Conditions

Really can't ask for anything better, especially after yesterday. It SUCKED at Belmont yesterday. Races off the turf to start then what appeared to be good weather and then a downpour that changed the late pick-4. Today? Perfect all the way around. Makes it a bit easier to look at the races and figure out what you want to do and how you want to bet.

The Field

Morning Odds

Thanks to Hollywood Races (download it here) here's our full preview

Eight horse field and you may notice a little something missing. Yep, Bob Baffert is suspended indefinitely from NYRA tracks as well as Churchill. So here we are with eight horses including Preakness winning Rombauer, who won us $2800 on the pick-4 if you tailed then. We also have Derby favorite Essential Quality running again. Fan favorite Hot Rod Charlie. Actually a bunch of good horses in this race despite it being just 8.

Longshots

I say it every time I write one of these previews. You have to draw a line somewhere and throw out a couple horses. I like to play pick-5s, pick-4s and exotics. Obviously can't all here, so you gotta draw a line. I'm not saying I won't use these horses in tris, but I'm not going to spend money on them in the pick-4, 5, etc.

5. France Go De Ina

8. Overtook

I think Overtook could be a little live because Pletcher horses tend to hit the money at the Belmont. But there are two other Pletcher horses I tend to like a little bit more than Overtook, especially coming from the outside. France Go De Ina ran in the Preakness and showed a little speed early. However, with this distance? I just don't think he has the endurance to get there. Overtook does have connections that make you want to use him on the backend of a tri and he did run in the Peter Pan Stakes (3rd place) at Belmont in May. But again, we're just breaking down the horses here.

The Middle Pletcher

1. Bourbonic

This is where the race is a bit weird. These three horses are the only ones currently 15/1 or higher. Bourbonic is the 2nd Pletcher horse we're talking about here. He won the Wood Memorial before finishing 13th at the Kentucky Derby. Not really sure what to make of this horse at this distance. I actually like Overtook more than Bourbonic if you're looking at using a longshot to finish out a tri.

Odds that I currently love

6. Known Agenda

7. Rock Your World

I'm going to be on Known Agenda, just like I was at the Kentucky Derby. This time he's not stuck on the inside like at Churchill. We also know that Pletcher is putting Jose Ortiz on the mount replacing his brother Irad, who is out for a couple weeks with an injury. I know he finished 9th at the Derby, but that race he just got lost because of the shitty draw. He moved from 17th to 9th after the shuffle, so coming out from the 6 spot makes me like him more. Rock Your World is another horse to target, especially as the likely 5th favorite or so. He got a bad break out of the gate at the Derby and was toast from that moment. He wants to get out to the lead which is key here with Rosario on the mount. If Rock Your World gets the break and sets the pace he's a good enough horse to win this. It's just a matter of pace and break.

The favorites

2. Essential Quality

3. Rombauer

4. Hot Rod Charlie

We know all about these three horses. Essential Quality was the Derby favorite, Rombauer won the Preakness and Hot Rod Charlie was a popular pick for the Derby. What's big here? Flavian Prat, who won riding Rombauer is going back to Hot Rod Charlie, a horse he ran to 3rd in the Derby. I love Prat as a jockey and that's for sure going to alter how to sort of look at these two horses. Rombauer actually came hard down the stretch at Preakness and I'm not worried about the distance. I am worried about the short turnaround though. He was rested for the Preakness and that showed turning for home. He also loses Prat but picks up Johnny V on the mount. Not a huge disadvantage there. Then there's Essential Quality. I'm going to use him in my pick 4s and 5s likely, but I want to fade him. Do not like him at 2-1 at all. We saw him have to go wide at the Derby and then flattened coming home because of that.

Betting Strategy

Belmont - I'm going to try and beat Essential Quality again for exotics. I'm also going to try and get a price in a tri. Is it smart? Probably not. But I like a couple horses right around Essential Quality at better prices. All of these can change but here's what I have this morning.

W/P/S - 6. Known Agenda

Exacta

Nothing too crazy for the exacta. I think Hot Rod Charlie and Known Agenda can get the rides that are needed to win. I think you see a battle between the big names in the race, so we're hoping the price comes out on top. If we get Known Agenda to win, it should be a nice pay day.

Trifecta