A Closer Look At What The Celtics Free Agent Additions Can Actually Bring To The Table
As I stated as soon as the offseason started, here was my ideal Celtics offseason wish list. It wasn't that crazy and something I think a lot of other Celts fans would agree with in terms fo what this team's needs are.
1. Re-sign Hayward on a team-friendly deal
2. If you can't re-sign him, get something for him
3. Draft a shooter to help the second unit
4. Find big man help through free agency
5. Find point guard depth in free agency
Obviously, #1 did not happen and as I write this blog #2 is still TBD. They took care of #3 with Aaron Nesmith and Payton Pritchard, with one being a player who experts call the best shooter in the draft. As with any rookie, we'll see if it translates or how quickly he'll earn minutes, but given his skillset it's hard to argue the fit
So let's talk about #4 and #5. It's important that we all set realistic expectations as to what these guys are. For starters, both are on great deals but both do come with their own amount of risk. All year we heard about how this team needed established big man help and how tired people were of watching Brad Wanamaker. Well, Tristan Thompson and Jeff Teague are upgrades than what we saw this lineup throw out last season. I know a lot of people wanted Myles Turner, but let's just look at the full picture.
Tristan Thompson
He's 29 years old, coming off a 12/10 season on 51% in 57 games this season (Cavs played 65). Now first and foremost, if you thought the days of worrying about health were over with Hayward gone, we can't say that with Thompson just yet. He looked good last season, but before that he played 53 and 43 games the two years prior. Much like Hayward before that first injury he was basically a lock for 82 games a year. The first year was a calf strain and the next season was a foot sprain. At least he didn't break or tear anything, so that's a positive. The bad thing is bigs and leg injuries don't usually mix, but I'd be much more concerned if he tore/broke something in that foot.
Thompson obviously checks one of the biggest boxes for this team, and that's rebounding. There is no denying he's the best rebounder this team has had in some time now. Remember how good Kanter was on the offensive glass? Thompson is coming off back to back seasons averaging 4 OREB a game and averaged 3.4 for his career. His 14% OREB% and 22.9% DEB are more than welcome. For the sake of comparison, Turner is 5% OREB and 19% DREB. In terms of rebounding, the Celts addressed this better than any other option.
Then there's the defense. The important thing for a big to do in Brad's defensive system is be able to switch. It's why we saw Kanter get carved like a turkey so often and why defenders like Theis seem to do so well. If you need guys to match up with someone like Giannis/Bam etc, Thompson is an interesting candidate.
Where he'll be an upgrade for this roster is defending the P&R. He's a lot more athletic and has quicker feet than someone like Kanter. Where he'll struggle compared to what we saw last year is in post defense. Did you know Kanter ranked in the 77th percentile in post defense? Thompson is around the 69th percentile. Turner ranked around the 60th percentile and Theis came in at 24th. So, even if they lose some production from Thompson compared to Kanter, he was better than Turner last year at it. That's important when it comes to players like Embiid.
What I can't tell you is that Thompson is the better offensive player. In terms of fit, a big that can stretch the floor like Turner is more along the lines of what Brad likes. Thompson shot 39% from three on just 23 3PA last year. My guess is that the attempt number goes up, but he won't keep that same efficiency. Basically, Thompson will be there to finish around the rim and off putbacks.
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A defensive lineup of Smart/Smart/Jaylen/Tatum/Thompson is very good. If your ask for the Celts this offseason was for them to find a veteran presence to help sure up their front line and be another serviceable body to go up against Bam, Thompson fits the bill. What he's not going to do is give you the same versatility offensively like someone like Turner would.
Jeff Teague
We all saw the Celtics bench last season. They were 29th in points at just 28.5. They were 30th in 3PM at 2.4 a game and 28th in 3P%. They needed to address this not just through the draft, but also in free agency.
Enter Jeff Teague.
No, he's not the same All Star Jeff Teague that you might remember and always torched the Celtics. But let's compare him to what was there before. When it comes to P&R as the ball handler, Teague ranked in the 90th percentile last year as a Timberwolve. Wanamaker came in around the 38th percentile. Given this offense LOVES high screens and P&R, that's a fit I like.
As a spot up shooter, I'm not ready to say this is an upgrade. Teague shot just 33% in spot ups in MIN and 38% in ATL. This was actually something that Wanamaker did well, averaging 41% shooting ranking in the 63rd percentile. So I don't think we'll be seeing much of Teague off ball when he runs the second unit.
In terms of isolation, this is a clear upgrade. Brad Wanamaker didn't run it a lot, but when he did iso he only shot 9% from the floor ranking in the 4th percentile. Teague is coming in shooting around 39% and the 46th percentile in isolation. So basically, when this second unit needs a bucket, having someone like Teague go and get you that bucket is much more likely than Wanamaker. That production is even better than Smart's (33%, 40th percentile). Remember, the entire goal was finding options to help make the second unit minutes not be such a disaster offensively. If you add a better scorer in Teague with some good shooting in Nesmith, well there you go. You're better.
You also have a guy that you can make spot starts with so you can rest Kemba's knee. That's pretty important as well.
What you're losing compared to Wanamaker is obviously the defense. This is where Wanamaker was very solid. He had good size, extremely active hands, and at this point in his career Teague isn't stopping anyone. But remember, the second unit issues were about offense and scoring, not defense. They have the defenders. They could just never score.
The one thing I think we can all agree on is that chances are Tristan Thompson and Jeff Teague were NOT Danny Ainge's #1 option or plan. I would find that hard to believe. And yet given the situation he found himself in, he did address two big needs with two established veteran players, one of which has championship experience. In the end, that's what almost every single one of us wanted when the season ended.
We'll wait and see what ends up happening with Hayward, but my guess is it'll either be nothing or a trade exception that they'll carry into the season. I don't see anything happening that will change this roster. Maybe I'm wrong and the Kings will match on Bogdanovic and then do a S&T with Ainge. I give that a 0.0000001% chance of happening.
But in the end these are two guys who know their role, won't take shots from the Jays and help sure up a couple of weaknesses. Not terrible if you ask me as long as you have the right expectations.