Tommy Stats NFL Week 9: Drew Brees Against Winning Teams vs. Tom Brady in Home Primetime Games, And More
Welcome back to the lab. Every Sunday morning during this NFL season, I'll be blogging the stats and trends that I presented on Barstool Sports Advisors, plus some additional ones that I didn't get to use. These stats are a mixture of ones I've found across various websites, and also some just through my own research from pouring through the data.
Below is my entire cheat sheet I use for Advisors each week. Lines courtesy of the Barstool Sportsbook, subject to change from the time I compiled this.
Baltimore Ravens (5-2, 3-4 ATS) @ Indianapolis Colts (5-2, 4-3 ATS)
1 PM on CBS
BAL -2.5
T 45.5
A lot of anti-Lamar stats here that make you want to be on the Colts.
-Lamar Jackson has never covered coming off a loss in his career. The Ravens are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up loss
-The Colts are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 against teams with a winning record
-The last time Lamar Jackson covered against a winning team was Week 14 last year against the Bills (0-3 since)
Seattle Seahawks (6-1, 5-2 ATS) @ Buffalo Bills (6-2, 3-5 ATS)
1 PM on FOX
SEA -3
T 54.5
People love betting against West Coast teams coming East, but the Seahawks have actually been providing value in that spot.
-Under Pete Carroll, the Seahawks are 14-7-3 ATS in 1 PM East Coast games
-Seahawks are 10-2 SU in last 12 as road favorites, 7-3-1 ATS
-Bills are 2-9 SU in last 11 as home dogs, 3-8 ATS
Pittsburgh Steelers (7-0, 6-1 ATS) @ Dallas Cowboys (2-6, 0-8 ATS)
4:25 PM on CBS
PIT -13.5
T 41.5
-In his career as a double digit road favorite, Big Ben is just 1-8 ATS
And they don't call the Cowboys "America's Team" for nothing
-The Cowboys are 6-1 ATS after a Presidential Election since 1992
Miami Dolphins (4-3, 5-2 ATS) @ Arizona Cardinals (5-2, 5-2 ATS)
4:25 PM
ARI -4.5
T 47.5
What if I told you that…
-Since Week 6 last year, the Dolphins are an NFL best 14-5 ATS. They have 8 wins straight up as an underdog since then, the most in football.
We also don't have a ton of data for the Cardinals in this spot, but what does exist isn't too hot
-Cardinals are 1-4 SU and ATS in their last 5 as home favorites
New Orleans Saints (5-2, 2-5 ATS) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-2, 4-4 ATS)
8:20 PM on NBC
TB -5
T 51.5
A tale of two different quarterbacks here. Drew Brees kind of stinks.
-Drew Brees is just 1-7 ATS in his last 8 games against winning teams
Tom Brady does not.
-Tom Brady is 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS in his last 6 home primetime games
However, for all the attention the Saints get as home favorites, they're actually way better as road dogs
-Saints are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 as an underdog
-Saints are 28-10 ATS in last 38 road games
-Saints are 21-9 ATS in last 30 as a road dog
If you missed this week's Advisors, make sure to catch up here to get all your winners before kickoff.
It'll also air again at 11, followed by the Pro Football Football show.