Our Latest Global Crisis: We're Not Making Enough Babies
BBC - The world is ill-prepared for the global crash in children being born which is set to have a "jaw-dropping" impact on societies, say researchers. ...
Countries will also age dramatically, with as many people turning 80 as there are being born.
The fertility rate - the average number of children a woman gives birth to - is falling.
If the number falls below approximately 2.1, then the size of the population starts to fall.
In 1950, women were having an average of 4.7 children in their lifetime.
Researchers at the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation ... projects it will fall below 1.7 by 2100.
As a result, the researchers expect the number of people on the planet to peak at 9.7 billion around 2064, before falling down to 8.8 billion by the end of the century. ...
Japan's population is projected to fall from a peak of 128 million in 2017 to less than 53 million by the end of the century.
Italy is expected to see an equally dramatic population crash from 61 million to 28 million over the same timeframe.
They are two of 23 countries - which also include Spain, Portugal, Thailand and South Korea - expected to see their population more than halve.
"That is jaw-dropping," Prof Christopher Murray told me.
China, currently the most populous nation in the world, is expected to peak at 1.4 billion in four years time before nearly halving to 732 million by 2100.
I don't hate to say "I told you so." This is something I've been warning you all about for a long time now. Everyone loves to complain about how there's too many people in the world. Even as life expectancy goes up, hunger rates go down, we produce more goods and food than ever before, and on the whole, quality of life rises relative to the entire rest of recorded history.
You might think the world is getting overpopulated, but I've noticed that nobody who thinks that ever throws themselves into a volcano to decrease the surplus population. As PJ O'Rouke once put it in the chapter title in one of his books, "Just the Right Amount of Me, Way Too Much of You."
As far as I can tell, this overpopulation cult began with an author by the name of Paul Ehrlich with his book "The Population Bomb" in 1968. Then in 1990 following it up with "The Population Explosion," because apparently coming up with more than one metaphor in 22 years is too much to ask. The first book started with the premise that there would be worldwide starvation in the 70s, death rates would ... blow up, I guess? ... and it was too late to too anything about it. The second completely ignored the fact the first one was so utterly wrong and just repeated the same argument, two decades and billions of healthy births later.
But the reality is now staring us in the face. We're not cranking out nearly enough babies. Sure, the idea of having fewer people around might sound appealing. Being able to visit Rome or Tokyo with half as many people standing in line for Coliseum, packing the sushi bars and nightclubs is tempting. But fat lot of good that's going to do you when you need some service. Sure, we all bitch about getting on a packed subway car. But no one's complaining about having too many nurses when their loved one is in ICU, there being too many registers open at the supermarket or the overpopulation of food delivery drivers.
If you think you want to live in a country with half as many people as we have now, just wait until that median age moves up into the 60s. When the average person is napping in a Lazy Boy recliner in front of "Golden Girls" and there aren't enough electricians, mechanics and snow plow drivers. And the small population of working age adults we do have are being taxed at 95% to help pay for the aging majority's boner pills.
Well unlike Paul Ehrlich, I'm saying it's not too late. Well, it is for me, but probably not for you. We can reverse this trend starting now if everyone does their part. I'm calling for all responsible adults to do their part to save their species. Stop taking your pills. Put your condoms away. Ride bareback like the future of the human race depends on you. Because it does. Make babies. Multiple babies. Stacks of babies. Dozens of them like a reality TV family. We don't have a sperm to spare.
