Bet 2020: Joementum Rising with Eyes Toward the General Election
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Last Monday, the Democratic party leadership consolidated the Mayor Pete, Amy Klobs, and Grandpa Joe campaigns into a three headed dog from hell to eat Crazy Bernie ALIVE on Super Tuesday; and it worked!
For their cold-blooded political maneuvering, the Ds have been rewarded in their quest to lock Bernie out. Sure, they’re going with a candidate they’ve rejected a bunch of times before; but I guess that’s how the cookie crumbles in big-time politics, because party leadership cracked the whip and the little Ds all over the country in every city and town went to stump for this guy:
Anyhow, I’m glad I wasn’t too bullish on Bernie in the South overall, but the bets in Virginia and Texas still took their toll. Now, with Mini Mike, Kamala, and the Governor of Michigan also backing Biden, it’s hard to see where the Bern goes from here. Liz Warren's refusal to endorse Bernie also leaves him sort of flailing in the wind, and the Biden team is looking for a knockout tomorrow with overwhelming wins in Missouri and Michigan.
For that reason, I took all my money from fading Mini Mike for the nomination, and whatever I got for going 11/18 in the first states, and added that to my Trump general election 2020 stock.
Considering that Biden is the likely nominee, it seems hard to imagine him beating Trump in 3 debates and then winning in the electoral college. The coronavirus is definitely going to eat at that Trump stock, but as long as we don't hit a major recession, I just have a really hard time seeing Biden taking the electoral college when he is having trouble convincing people he's healthy enough to run in the first place... hmm... sounds familiar...
Anyway, time to get back to the drawing board and win that money back, starting with tomorrow’s races. Current Delegate count has Windows95 Joe up a little on Apocalypse Bernie, and Biden thinks Michigan, Missouri, and Mississippi are going to set him on a path to the majority of delegates he needs to secure the nomination (1,991). Bernie would need a HUGE showing in at least Michigan to make this thing a race again. Liz Warren dropping out makes it possible, but can he do it??
Honestly, pretty doubtful, but it will be fun to watch. Here are my picks for tomorrow, and unfortunately Joe is a 90+ cent favorite in every state besides Idaho and Washington, so not great return betting on him:
- Idaho (20 Delegates) - Biden @ 70 cents (more conservative then most other Western states)
- Michigan (125 Delegates) - Biden, but worth noting Bernie won Michigan in 2016 after polling incredibly low, so he may be worth a flier here at 8 cents a share, or roughly +1200 equivalent
- Mississippi (36 Delegates) - Biden
- Missouri (68 Delegates) - Biden
- North Dakota (14 Delegates) - Biden
- Washington (89 Delegates) - Sanders @ 35 cents. This is a long-shot, and polling at close to a toss-up, but if Sanders loses Washington it's also a good indicator that the race is formally over and we can move on to Trump vs. Biden.
Basically, Biden is extremely strong in states where Trump is going to kick his ass anyway, so when you see a state like M-I-Crooked Letter or a Dakota, go Biden. Personally, I'd like the fight between Sanders and Biden to continue longer so we can continue to bet on it with decent odds, and watch a meaningful debate on Sunday, BUT the signs are pointing toward this race being over by mid-week. Joementum Rising.
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