Sony Open Preview: Why Lie, There's An Obvious Pick
Good afternoon folks and welcome back. Just a few days and a few islands removed from what may stand as the craziest finish of the year on tour, we’re still in Hawaii. Honolulu. The views aren’t quite as good but the prime time golf slot still is. It’s the Sony Open, the first full-field event of the year with final round coverage concluding around 10pm Sunday night.
History
Two years ago delivered an historic one. We had a nuke scare and a coverage strike… on the same weekend! Unfortunately, the way things are going, we could have another nuke scare this weekend. If you recall, people were diving into sewers after some guy hit the wrong button signaling North Korea had launched a nuclear warhead at Hawaii. On Sunday, the golf production team went on strike so Golf Channel provided coverage via drones and just a couple cameras. The commentators were in studio in Orlando. It was hilarious and, quite frankly, enjoyable.
In 2017, Justin Thomas opened with a Thursday 59 and went on to win by 7, finishing 27-under.
Waialae Country Club’s played host to this event since 1965. Peculiarly, no one’s won here more than twice. The last to do so was Jimmy Walker, winning back-to-back in 2014 and 2015 (won by a record 9 shots in 2015).
Michelle Wie was granted 4 consecutive sponsor invites and played in the Sony from 2004-2007.
In 1983, Isao Aoki became the first Japanese winner on tour by famously holing out for eagle on the 72nd hole to win by 1.
Two years ago, Patton Kizzire won over James Hahn in SIX extra holes.
And last year, public enemy no. 1, Matt Kuchar, won by 4.
The Course
Waialae was designed by legendary course architect Seth Raynor. It opened in 1927, less than a year after Raynor’s sudden and untimely death. Unfortunately, the course was significantly reworked in the 1960s after portions of the property were sold off to build a new hotel. For the tournament, the nines are reversed so the players finish at Waialae’s dogleg left par-5 9th hole.
Notable Holes
7th, 176 yards, par 3
Not my clearest aerial but you get the point. A short one, but heavily-guarded. Cool little par-3.
9th, 506 yards, par 5
The 9th is one of just two par-5s at Waialae. Both are reachable for everyone in the field. Need to do some damage here if you want a chance.
16th, 417 yards, par 4
You’ll see a lot of this one because of the “W” trees. Fuck those trees. Tacky. Yuck.
18th, 551 yards, par 5
The 18th will serve up plenty of drama. They’ve got to shape it SERIOUSLY right-to-left to keep it in the fairway, which is tricky with firm and fast fairways. But if they’re able to pull it off, there’s not much left from there. JT had just an 8-iron in when he shot 59.
The Clubhouse
Apparently it’s a hotel not a clubhouse?
0/10.
Weather
LOVE seeing the wind symbol. Couldn’t be a bigger fan of that. 24, 21, 17 and 16 mph winds? Give it to me. Feed it to me. Let me chew on it. Hell yes.
Don’t love the rain though. Soft = boring.
The Field
Not the most star-studded field I’ve ever seen but a few good names in here. JT, Reed, Kiz, Kuch. I love watching the young kid Morikawa play. Here are your betting odds.
Our guys in the field: Kevin Kisner, Justin Thomas, Keegan Bradley, Scott Brown, Charley Hoffman.
Other guys who aren’t necessarily “our guys” but we’ve either had on the show or done something with: Daniel Berger, Bud Cauley, Jason Dufner, Brian Harman, Jim Herman, Smylie Kaufman, Colt Knost, Ryan Palmer, Pat Perez, Jimmy Walker, Lanto Griffin, Patton Kizzire, Keith Mitchell.
Predictions
Last Week
Here’s how my predictions panned out last week. 1 for 1 on winners this year. Yep.
Winning Score
Predicted: -18
Actual: -14
Winner
Predicted: Justin Thomas (5/1)
Actual: Justin Thomas
Dark Horse
Predicted: Max Homa (180/1)
Actual: Max finished T25 out of 34 players
DFL
Predicted: Tyler Duncan (150/1)
Actual: Tyler finished T19 out of 34 players; Martin Trainer finished DFL at 18-over par
Kiz
Just a Kisner update because why not. Kiz finished T14 for a nice $127,333.
JT was 5/1 so it’s a strong start for us. We’re happy. Onto this week.
This Week – Winning Score
Matt Kuchar was 22-under last year and the 4 years prior the winning scores were: -17, -27, -20, and -23. This year, though, the wind is supposed to blow.
Winning score, -17.
Winner
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I know people are going to bitch and complain and roast me for this.
“Way to go out on a limb.”
“Wow taking the betting favorite and the same guy in back-to-back weeks, heroic.”
But I truly believe you have to be a Trysta-Krick-level moron not to take JT this week.
His last 7 starts: 1st, T5, T17, 1st, T4, T3, 1st.
The last time he won at Kapalua — as he did last week — he followed it up with a Thursday 59 and a 7-shot win at the Sony Open.
Winner, Justin Thomas (5/1).
Dark Horse
He may be 41/1 but Abraham Ancer couldn’t miss for the first 3 days at the Presidents Cup, his last two starts he’s finished T4 and T8, and he had this to say about tequila this week.
Dark horse, Abraham Ancer (41/1).
The Steven Bowditch & Smylie Kaufman Memorial DFL Award
Yes Smylie Kaufman is in the field but no I am not going to do it. Despite what you may believe, I root for Smylie. Hard. I love that kid.
DFL this week will belong to Vincent Whaley (1,000/1).
Coverage
Thursday: 7-10:30pm EST (Golf Channel)
Friday: 7-10:30pm EST (Golf Channel)
Saturday: 7-10:30pm EST (Golf Channel)
Sunday: 6-10pm EST (Golf Channel)
Final Thoughts
Geoff Shackelford of Old Man Golf Media joined Fore Play this week to talk old vs new golf media. It was an interesting, insightful, and (mostly) civil conversation. I think it’s one of our more must-listen interviews.
Enjoy Waialae.