Breaking Down The Nolan Arenado Trade Speculation
*To The Cubs
This shouldn't be a difficult concept to grasp but Nolan Arenado is fucking awesome at baseball. So much so that you can spare me your analytics and metrics. The best players are indescribable and that's exactly how I would ironically describe Nolan Arenado. One of the best players in the world and certainly one of the best I've ever watched play 3rd base. Whether you're a Rockies fan or Cubs fan or American League guy or XFL rulebook enthusiast - whoever you are - so long as you have a pulse, you should be in complete agreement that Nolan Arenado is an amazing baseball player
Another thing we can agree on is that the Cubs haven't done shit this offseason.
Which is surprising because the 2nd largest payroll in baseball finished in 3rd place last year while clearly demonstrating drastic Room For Improvement.
And while I mean no disrespect to Daniel Descalso or his .250 slugging% - when he's the biggest free agent move over the last 2 goddamn offseasons, you're mailing it in.
I will murder you Carl.
But then I remind everyone that the Kris Bryant grievance is still miraculously going on and it's evident the Cubs won't do anything with the roster until it's formally decided if KB has 1 or 2 years of control left. All indications point to it being 2 years, but you'll need that in writing before the Cubs are able to make a move. I got deep on this shit a little while back:
The #1 takeaway is that KB's grievance will dictate every other move.
The #2 takeaway is I didn't think it would take almost 3 months to still not have a decision
Nevertheless, we still have a season coming up with pitchers and catchers about 5 weeks out from camp. For context, 5 weeks ago from today we were getting ready for college football conference championship games. Using the transitive property we can thus conclude that time fucking flies and pitchers will be reporting in no time.
With that urgent spirit in mind, let's take a trip to the Nolan-Arenado-To-The-Cubs Rumor Mill:
Advertisement
The general speculation is that the Cubs have been laying in the weeds, sorting out the KB stuff and coming up with a bunch of trade options to stay under the luxury tax while improving the roster. Not the easiest thing to do when you literally have no farm system to rely upon, but that's the task at hand, like it or not.
To keep moving in this blog, we next have to agree on a couple things:
- The Cubs don't have young pitching but need young pitching
- Kris Bryant will only sign an extension that meets or exceeds his free agent fair market value.
- Nolan Arenado and Anthony Rendon currently have the market set at about $32-$35million/year for an MVP caliber 3rd baseman
- The Rockies are extremely motivated to move Arenado because they're in the NL West basement with everyone else trending up
- The Cubs want to get better but can't spend in free agency to get there
It's important we agree on these things because they're the foundation for this conversation. The Rockies stink. The Cubs payroll is bloated while the farm system rots. KB is going to get a massive payday in 1-2 years, but exactly when that happens will dictate his trade value.
In other words we got a lot of moving pieces here that layout the motivations on each side to hit the trade market. Not necessarily with each other, but definitely motivated to have the conversation. And while the rest of free agency settles and teams finalize their 40-mans, the time crunch adds extra motivation to kick tires, which brings us back to today's Rumor Mill tour.
Advertisement
Step 1: Which All Star Can The Cubs Give Up?
Willson Contreras because he's got boat loads of upside and 3 years of control left. And relax. I didn't say this would be easy. We're talking about a deal for a top 10 player and that means making some sacrifices. We'd start with Contreras because it would essentially be a choice between him, Baez and Schwarber to lead the deal and we know Baez is laughably not in the mix to be moved. We're just putting him in here for context and to remind you Baez has 2 years of control left.
And when it comes to Schwarber, I'm of the mindset that if the Cubs would ever trade him, it would have already happened. At this point I think you can indefinitely magic-marker his name into the lineup card. Call it a hunch.
Then with respect to KB and as I said above, it wouldn't make sense to include him in a deal to the Rockies because they'd essentially be trading contracts and that would be stupid when it's clear they have bigger needs in the long run than a high profile 3rd baseman. This brings us back to what the Cubs can give up.
If it's not Baez, Schwarber, Bryant, or Rizzo (lol) then you're left with Contreras as the lead name. Hopefully you feel more comfortable now that we've backed into it.
Alternatively, I could just tell you that catching will be the easiest position to replace when you consider payroll, existing depth and the overwhelming supply of slightly-below-average veteran backups.
Step 2: What Do The Rockies Need?
#1. Catching
#2. Starting pitching
#3. Actual major league players
I did my research. The Rockies #1 backstop is Tony Wolters and he's objectively terrible in the box. Great behind the plate but a 64 career OPS+ spanning almost 1,000 at bats in Colorado. Just downright brutal. Mix in the bums behind him and you have a strong case for the worst group of catchers in the National League.
Next up is starting pitching because the Rockies will literally never have enough starters. Insert Kyle Hendricks
JUST KIDDING
Don't you fucking dare mention that name in a trade. EVER.
Point is the Cubs would need to pony up some arms and while the cupboard is bare, you imagine Brailyn Marquez and Adbert Alzolay get thrown in the mix. Marquez being much more attractive as a power lefty with a four seamer in the low 100's while Adbert has a heavy sinker that could play in Denver should he figure out how to repeatably command it.
Then finally the Rockies need major league players. I say that half joking, but then you look at the Rockies 40-man roster and it becomes evident that it's just a shoddy group of mercenary veterans mixed with extremely talented young ballplayers. Their depth is nonexistent while their strongest veteran presence is the winner of a Daniel Murphy vs. Ian Desmond argument.
Step 3: What Would It Take To Do A Deal?
The deal is for Nolan Arenado and the remaining 7 years and $234million for about $33.5m a year.
To get there, we can start with Contreras. Mix in a Marquez/Adbert. Mix in Heyward and some splits on his contract. Maybe throw in Descalso to play 5th infielder behind Story, McMahon, Rodgers and Sampson. He'd be the only veteran in the bunch.
The key here is the payroll flexibility to the Rockies while they try and reset in 2020 because let there be no doubt, the Rockies need to get their house in order if they want to compete in their division. And unfortunately for them that means shopping Nolan, but not with the timeframe that typically comes with such a high profile name. The Rockies aren't looking to completely retool their farm system. Instead they need to get at least two regular position players in return, about $25 million extra dollars and some depth to their starting staff. What I'm proposing meets that albeit weakly because Heyward sucks. Fortunately I'm not the sales guy in the room on this one.
Advertisement
Step 4: What About Kris Bryant?
Let's go back to the grievance issue. If it's ruled that KB has 2-years left like I anticipate, his value should be pretty fucking high. Maybe not what we thought this time 3 years ago, but he's still one of the best in the world.
If the Cubs make a move for Nolan, obviously there would be a corresponding move with KB. On that front, I'd expect the Cubs to go after a stable of young arms. That would work in conjunction with giving up the top 2 pitching prospects should they go that route in an Arenado trade. It would also help clear payroll as KB will probably net around $20million in arbitration. Mixed with Heyward and Contreras, you clear about $50,000,000 in luxury tax purposes. Give or take. It's a big number that opens the door for Castellabos to resign and play the right field that's been vacated by Jason Heyward.
Step 5: Who Would You Trade Kris Bryant To?
Idk how about the Rangers? Who fucking knows. Someone who needs a 3rd baseman, didn't get one this offseason and is willing to give up all their top pitching prospects to salvage 2020. That means you need a little desperation amongst an anxious fanbase that's getting a new ballpark with an existing history of dealing with the Cubs aka the Rangers. Sue me for connecting dots.
Step 6: IN CONCLUSION
Listen I'm not guaranteeing anything and certainly don't need anyone citing me in their next book report on Cubs offseason stagnancy.
Instead, we're just walking around the Rumor Mill looking at shit and thinking about what could happen should the two teams climb into bed together.
Would I make this deal if I were the Rockies?
Probably not.
Would I make this deal if I were the Cubs?
Probably.
Idk how to close the gap on that discrepancy. I'm just being honest that it doesn't feel right, but that's right now. Ultimately it's going to come down to the Kris Bryant grievance issue. Nothing happens until that's decided. So for now, try and enjoy the fact that the best executive in the history of the sport is calling the shots coming off a 3rd place finish. If there's blood in the water, Theo's gonna find it.