Chargers/Chiefs Divisional Round Preview: I Might Die On The Electric Chair
This is a biiiiig weekend for the best division in football. The Chargers are going into New England to get revenge for 2007 (and 2006….and all the regular season losses) while the chiefs host their own revenge game vs Indianapolis. Let’s take a look on what to expect going into these games.
In case you didn’t know, I’ll be on the electric chair for this one in the second half along with Pres, Feits, PFT and a few others. Off the bat, my prediction for this game is that LA wins by a close margin, maybe 28-24. The Chargers have a better offense, a better defense, and a rejuvenated special teams to go with a very competent coaching staff. That said, the Patriots are the Patriots. They still have Brady, Belichick, and the Foles/Pedersen deal with the devil that makes them mostly unbeatable in the postseason.
A big question is going to this game is how the Chargers are going to line up on defense. They used 7 DBs throughout the game vs the ravens to counter Lamar Jacksons speed, vs their slow linebackers, which is not a concern facing Brady. What is a concern, however, is the absence of Jatavis Brown. Pullard and Emmanuel are just not suited to face speedy receivers in the middle like Edleman or Hogan, or worse yet their crew of runningbacks. Favoring speed here might actually play better with Adrian Phillips and Jahleel Addae essentially playing ILB. The problem with repeating that is that Belichick has a whole games worth of tape to watch and prepare for.
Adrian Phillips was a tremendous hero in the wildcard round, and we can expect to see a lot more of him on Sunday. On offense, the game is going to depend a lot on Rivers being able to read New England’s secondary correctly. The Patriots defense was T-30th overall in sacks, so protection shouldn’t be a huge issue. It will be more important for Rivers to be able to identify double teams to get the open man. Tyrell and Mike Williams have a height/athleticism advantage over most of their defensive backs other than J.C. Jackson which opens up opportunities for jump-balls on vertical routes.
In summary, the Chargers are better team from a personel standpoint but they’re still the Chargers and the Patriots are still the Patriots. However, as long as they can control the TOP and continue being probably the best defense left in the playoffs, I think they can take this.
This is a big redemption game for Andy Ried, who had one of the worst playoff meltdowns in history vs the Colts in 2014.
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It’s difficult to predict this game, and I think it’s really going to come down to the Chiefs outstanding pass-rush vs the Colts elite offensive line. Whoever loses that battle will lose the game, and I think the Colts lose it. They had arguably the best draft of the year outside of the Browns with rookie lineman Quenton Nelson and Braden Smith headlining the 3rd best O-line in the league according to PFF. They showed up big vs the top ranked rush offense in the Texans, and not giving up a sack all game. I think the Chiefs combination of Dee Ford, Justin Houston, and Chris Jones will be able to make pressure, though, and help the Chiefs win this.
On defense, winning that battle is the biggest key to the game. Their secondary is going to get toasted no matter what, and there is no chance they will be able to hold Marlon Mack to anything less than 75 yards minimum. Forcing Luck into making mistakes through pressure, allowing the offense some room to breathe, will win them this game. Also important is going to be how they cover Eric Ebron, who is an absolute matchup nightmare for their linebackers and safeties. Jordan Lucas cometh????
On offense, they just need to do what they’ve done all year and score early and often. Darius Leonard, part of the Colts insane draft, missed 2 games and still lead the league in tackles. I don’t see Damien Williams avoiding him or that freak Margus Hunt much. The good news is that Mitchell Schwartz is probably the best RT in the league, so running behind him in both power and screens should prove successful. Mahomes is under a tremendously bright light, with his first playoff game ever coming on the heels of a (predicted) MVP award in a stadium full of his fans clamoring for revenge. I would expect some rookie mistakes in the first half, maybe a pick/fumble while trying to do too much, and a readjustment in the second half. Kelce is going to need to be a huge safety net for him to the point that if he gets shut down, I think they’re pretty much sunk.
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To sum it up, the Chief’s front 7 need to win the battle up front, and Mahomes needs to be able to establish a rhythm or they might be sunk. As an unspoken rule of playoff football, Andy Reid’s biggest enemy will be himself. Time management vs CPOY Andrew Luck is going to be hugely important.
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