Previewing Tonight's Survivor: David vs. Goliath Finale

The sun is shining. The birds are chirping. The air is crisper. It’s Survivor Finale Day.

This has been an unbelievable season of Survivor, one of the best in a long time. Really strong characters, gameplay, and drama have combined to make some great television. Christian was one of the biggest fan favorites and intriguing characters the show has had in a long time. I actually thought his exit last week as underwhelming. Thought his exit episode would feel a bit more epic, and he’d get a hero’s send off.

But regardless, let’s get into tonight’s finale. Now if you pay attention to online sources and are plugged into the Survivor community, you will see that there are major rumors circulating about tonight. It could be a groundbreaking episode. I have goosebumps just thinking about it. I don’t want to be the breaker of news on this, but if you’re interested, it’s not hard to find with some Twitter searches and googling. I’ll just say it involves possible cheating.  DUN DUN DUN.

Alright, here are my power rankings for who I think is likely to win tonight, scandals aside. I would’ve loved to blog this season throughout, but it was a busy fall and I rarely ever got to watch the new episodes on Wednesday nights. Would’ve been weird to blog it 4 days later. Here are my favorites to win tonight, from least likely to most. I’m thankfully not spoiled, but this is based on what us Survivor nerds call “edgic”, a mix of “edit” and “logic.” Once you start paying attention to edgic, it can ruin some of the suspense. But I think it’s a fun way to watch a season and keep yourself sharp.

The Absolutely No Chance To Win Tier

6. Angelina 

Myself and everyone reading this has the same chance of winning Survivor tonight as Angelina. Zero point zero. Angelina is probably one of the more unlikable characters Survivor has had recently. So unlikable, that you almost have to like her if you just embrace her for what she is. From begging for Natalie’s jacket after she got voted out, to begging to go on reward since she got the rice, she has been entertaining and cringey to watch all at the same time. That being said, no jury will ever give her a million dollars. I imagine she’ll get to the end just because you want to sit next to her. I can’t wait to hear her speech to the jury. There should be some great lines.

The I Would Be Shocked If They Win But I Guess It’s Kind Of Like 1% Possible Tier

5. Mike

This is a tricky one. I don’t think Mike has played a horrible game. He’s been fairly wishy-washy, but overall nothing to be ashamed of. On gameplay alone, he should have a higher chance of winning. But he’s Ned Schneebly from School Of Rock, and that alone will probably keep him from winning. He’s had a successful Hollywood career and has a net worth of $4 million per a Google search. I actually hate that celebrities and rich people have no chance of winning usually. Survivor isn’t about who needs a million dollars. It’s about who did the most on that island to earn the million dollars. That being said, I can’t see the jury giving him a million dollar check. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him and Angelina be the runner-ups to the winner.

4. Alison 

Alison has been very confusing to me. She’s painfully boring. Charisma of a doorknob. Her voice isn’t great to listen to. Yet, she continually gets mentioned as a threat. Over the last few episodes people have wanted to  throw votes her way because she’s some threat. I don’t see it. Don’t think she’s played a great game. Don’t see a jury giving her the win. The only reason I give her even a speckle of a chance is because I guess people on that island seemed to respect her game if they kept wanting her out. For that reason, you can maybe flip her to 3rd over Kara, but whatever. She’s not winning.

3. Kara

Under the radar, Kara has played a pretty solid game. Nothing flashy or spectacular. But she’s made some necessary shifts, had some things go her way, and managed to stay off the chopping block. She is charming and well-spoken and can probably make a strong case for herself at Final Tribal Council. That being said, I don’t think she’s done enough to win. If you want look at edit, she has been given screen time from the beginning thanks to her relationship with Dan. But while she’s been present in the edit, I’m not sure she’s had that “winner’s edit.” No big heroic or dramatic moments. It’s been a great season. I can’t see her, at this current edit, being paraded as the champion of it.

The One Of Them Will Definitely Win Tier

2. Nick 

This is honestly a coin flip. You can definitely make the case for Nick as the winner. He’s played a really  strong game. He’d had a lot of camera time. Winner-type edit. Emotional moments. No huge enemies on the jury. He’s a lawyer so you know he’ll be solid at Final Tribal Council. The more I type this, the more I think I should have him ranked #1, and honestly it’s really 1 and 1A. But what does concern me about Nick is I think there’s a chance he just doesn’t make the finals for being such a threat, especially with a shield gone in Christian. But I’m basically giving him a 50% chance to win. He reminds me a bit of Adam, who won season 33. Nick is the type of player I would/will be. Obviously not a physical threat/cool guy like Dan or Alec from this season. A superfan who knows the game, but not quite as out there as Christian, at least I like to think. Overall, very strong chance Nick is a millionaire after tonight.

1. Davie

As I’ve said, it’s Davie or Nick. Reminds me of Dominick and Wendell heading into the last finale where it was very clear one of them would win (although I don’t know if we’ll get another tie this time).  Going with Davie over Nick is somewhat of a gut pick for me, but it’s backed with a ton of reason. He’s had a super positive edit. He was pretty quiet early on, but then emerged in a big way. He’s had strong alliances, found idols, has friends on the jury, and has been an incredibly likable personality all season long. I LOVED the move he made of not risking his vote for more power on his idol. He made the right move to just keep it and play it that night. We also got an emotional, winner-type moment out of that with him asking God what to do. He’s had other moments similar to that in this season, like when he he won immunity and talked about how all his friends mocked him for not typically being athletic.

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Good player + Good character + Good edit = Recipe for Survivor Winner

Been a great season and should be a great finish, especially if the rumors are true. I can’t wait.

READY TO ROLL