The Official Joe Maddon 2018 Performance Review Blog
Some opening comments before I get to your loyal questions.
I don’t dislike Joe Maddon as the manager of the Cubs. In fact it’s quite the opposite. We’re talking about a World Series Champion manager that’s gone to the NLCS every year he’s been with the Cubs. IN ADDITION THOSE FUN FACTS, the Cubs have won more games than any other MLB club going back to the start of 2015…. 27 more than the Cardinals, 54 more than the Pirates, 66 more than the Brewers, 74 more than the Giants and 99 more than the White Sox. Comparatively speaking, we have it damn good as Cubs’ fans.
This one’s for you, Carl. – Joe Maddon
I want to briefly emphasize that Joe won a World Series Championship. Obviously so did the outstanding Major League Baseball players he managed. But let me remind you that prior to Joe, my conscious fandom goes back to the Glory Dayz of Jim Riggelman, Don Baylor, Rene Lacheman, Bruce Kimm, DUSTY FUCKIN BAKER, Big Lou, Quade, Sveum (puke) and Renteria (barf).
You should use history to your advantage when you can to best understand the future. And in this particular instance of evaluating Joe, history suggests he’s the best we’ve ever had, one of the best in the world and that, most importantly, he’s capable of leading a team to World Series glory with or without proper bullpen management. In other words, I could easily stop right here and just say Joe is my guy and everyone else can kiss my ass.
But that wouldn’t be very American of me. This is a country rooted on common man approval and right now there’s bad ju ju in the air with Joe. People are furious with some of his moves lately, myself included and presumably Pedro Strop’s agent. And there’s robust speculation Theo hasn’t extended Joe’s contract because there’s still uncertainty if they want him longer term. It’s obvious The People have spoken and it’s obvious they want answers to an extremely difficult question: IS JOE MADDON THE RIGHT GUY?
Personally, I’m on a fence right now, hammered, playing jenga in a windstorm not knowing which way I’m about to fall. I don’t know what to think because part of me sees Joe as having major flaws relative to Theo trying to establish a dynasty. But as I say above Joe’s done nothing but make NLCS appearances since he showed up and the Cubs are 2 games up in the division with two weeks left in 2018. We’re looking at a 4th straight playoff appearance and 3rd straight division championship. The big picture is beautiful, but how often are we left questioning Joe’s decisions on a game-to-game basis?
It’s a weird time as a Cubs’ fan. This is stuff we have not encountered before, ever: being good year after year. I’m caught between blaming Joe and blaming myself for being a critical pussy. So in that spirit of confusion, I’ve turned to the Common Man for your perspective to reconcile my Joe emotions. The specific objective we want to accomplish by the end of this is How Should We Feel About Joe. October is coming one way or the other, and we’re either going to be very happy or extremely sad in a short period of time. This is for those that need help riding their emotional roller coaster.
Let’s get to the questions.
As a fan you’re allowed to be mad at any point. No one can rob you of that god given inalienable right as a SPORTS fan. However and more specifically, the crux of your question Terry is when do you get persecuted by Hippie Cubs fans, otherwise known as Joe Maddon loyalists. It’s not a horrible crowd, but they certainly have their fixed opinions. I suppose getting passed them would take an act of God aka Theo Epstein not renewing his contract this offseason while disclosing, boldly, the specific reasons as to why. There’s about 6 weeks left of baseball before we get to that point, so I would imagine your criticism will get chewed up and spit out by the majority until then. Which is why I’m here with open arms.
Personally, I think it’s fair to be mad retroactively back to the start of the 2nd half and periodically up to now. And to give warning – it’s not that the Cubs are bad or any of that overhyped nonsense. It’s a matter of whether or not they are performing to expectations and objectively I think Cubs’ fans should be okay, GENERALLY, in saying that Joe has underperformed. How much of that is on Joe is a *phenomenal* argument right now. Both sides have a lot to say. My #1 bug? Addison Russell, Ian Happ, Albert Almora and Willson Contreras have uniformly regressed throughout the year. The best counterpoint? Not Joe’s fault. Or is it? Someone ask Theo.
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Hey Earl. Thanks for the question. It doesn’t burn my ass, although I can understand the hemorrhoidal frustration you’re getting at because Joe’s strength certainly isn’t in the genius aspect of baseball. It’s in the relationship part, which the Cubs value as high as anything, allegedly, especially when there are dozens of geniuses working in the front office. Seriously the place is littered with geniuses. I got a buddy from the frat (ruh rah rega) that is smart enough to be building rocket ships but instead is creating statistical models for a baseball team. Think about that for a second. Rocket ships vs. baseball who ya got.
Anyways point is Joe isn’t the genius in this organization and not by a long shot, but that’s not why he’s such a good MLB manager. His success is from getting guys like Javy Baez to play like an MVP by empowering him with leadership and structure but still being hands off. Delicate balance that he does well. But by no means is he a genius. That’s why Theo runs the show at the end of the day, so by all means Earl get mad at your grandma’s meatballs.
Pedro Strop is likely out a few weeks, which could mean until the NLCS (at best under all circumstances) after tweaking his hamstring running to first base yesterday in the 10th inning with the Cubs up 1. You might be wondering, Why Would Pedro Strop Be Running To First Base? He’s The Closer. Excellent question. You might also be wondering Why Didn’t Tommy La Stella Pinch Hit With 1 Out So The Cubs Could Add On To Their Lead? That too is an excellent question, both of which I can’t answer other than to say that Joe Maddon preferred Strop with a 1-run led than Randy Rosario with a potential 2+ run lead.
Beyond that, Jake raises an excellent point – how do the players have confidence in Joe when he makes decisions like that? Everyone on the team, EVERYONE ON THE TEAM, is wondering why Strop hit in the 10th last night. And now EVERYONE ON THE TEAM is wondering who is going to close now. Joe said it himself. He doesn’t know. Neither do we.
So at this point I just want to say thank God for Anthony Rizzo, Jon Lester, Jason Heyward (THERE I SAID IT) and Javy Baez because they set the tone for everyone else with or without Pedro Strop unnecessarily having to hit in what was the most important game the Cubs had played in 2018. Insane stuff.
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The Cubs won. Bury this please. I’m living in the Now.
Willy for Caratini because it’s Willy. Zobrist for Bote because he’s L on R and that’s a historically positive spot for Zo. Strop instead of La Stella because Joe wanted Strop with a 1 run lead over someone else with a 2+ lead, which is insane to me. And CJ pitches because there is literally no one else in the bullpen right now that can get a lot of swings and misses. Even if CJ has the temperament of a 13 year-old All Star yelling at his mom coming off the field, he still needs to pitch. Because, naturally, when Carl is on he’s en fuego and if this bird is going anywhere you’re going to need him locked in.
His hand is forced with Russell. He’s so good Defensively that any offensive output is an added bonus at this point. I also think there’s this deep connection, somehow someway, between Theo’s philosophy and how Earl Manager ran the Orioles in the 70’s. Idk how or why, but my brain has been fixed on this theory for years. Now is not the time to go down this rabbit hole, but I will say this. Just kidding it’s definitely Rabbit Hole time. Gather round everybody.
Earl Weaver modernized the use of statistics in the dugout to make managerial decisions. Earl Weaver loved the 3-run homerun. Hated stolen bases. Loved obscure veterans that were undervalued. He hated bunting. Loved his pitchers hunting strikeouts. Always moved the lineup around. Always tried to outgame the rules. Etc. But the overwhelming thing that Weaver loved that I see in this Cubs team is the profound need for a premium defender at short.
Weaver had Mark Belanger for 16 seasons from 1965-1981. Over that time Belanger posted a 68 OPS+ and a .228 batting average meaning he was about as bad as you can be offensively as a regular player in baseball. His career WAR? 40.9, good for 39th all time amongst shortstops. For context, Omar Vizquel is considered one of the best defensive shortstops ever. He has a 45 career WAR in twice as many plate appearances as Belanger with an 82 OPS+. WELCOME TO MY RABBIT HOLE. Point is Belanger is about as good at playing shortstop as anyone has ever been, ever. And Weaver road that principle to his grave. He didn’t give a shit if Belanger was under .200 – his point was always, always, ALWAYS have the best defender imaginable at shortstop and don’t think twice about his offense.
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I’m not saying Joe Maddon is starting Addison Russell every day now because the Orioles did it with Belager for 16 years and Theo is copying Earl Weaver. Please dear God do not think I am making this argument. I’m simply stating that I think Earl Weaver had an immense appreciation for plus-plus defense at shortstop and that I see the same preference from the Cubs with Russell, otherwise there’s no way he would be playing right now.
Just take it with a grain of salt I’m a big Mark Belanger guy.
Next Question.
I can’t pretend to answer this question without speculating too hard. Idk Joe that well or at all. I’m not in the dugout. I’m not in the clubhouse asking questions. I’m just trying to make sense of everything, and his approach to the pitching staff is beyond me. Take it for what it is – I can’t explain it.
I will say this however, Joe has an itchy trigger finger because I think he’s afraid of being the manager that left his starter in too long. Like he has some deeply rooted principle that if he’s losing, it’s going to be on a bullpen arm over the starter. At least it’s predictable.
Finally, don’t hesitate to blame Jim Hickey. At least Bosio would argue with Joe during the game about moves. Again I’m not in the dugout but I am definitely interested in knowing how much Hickey influences pitching changes. Where’s the mainstream report on that?
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A common complaint with Joe is managing the first pitching change. It often seems like he doesn’t consider the starting pitcher’s spot in the lineup when deciding to leave someone in or take them out. Last night was another example of not pinch hitting for Monty, but then clamping up in the bottom half of the inning and taking him out immediately. His trigger is so quick on everyone not named Jon Lester or presumably Cole Hamels that most pitchers are probably spending wayyyyyyy too much brain power on whether or not Joe is about to take them out of the game. Trust goes a long way with your starting pitchers, and sending Monty up in the 5th to hit to then take him out in the 5th in minimal trouble is a bad sign. I’m sure Monty was pissed and rightfully so. I’m sure most guys in the dugout were scratching their head. Why Joe why?
The Cubs as an organization are extremely laid back. That’s a huge Theo Epstein character trait. The guy never lets you see him sweat and always has a big picture attitude. It’s refreshing for that to be at the top of the organization because that’s the tone you need to set.
That said, I don’t think the manager needs to be the most laid back person in the entire organization. I think it leads to stuff like blaming the weather, and not communicating accountability to the fan base and blah blah blah. We want results and we expect the players to play at their potential. This is a hard game for everyone involved. I think the Nothing Is A Big Deal attitude can help and hurt at the same time for all of those reasons. Is there urgency to get better? Not that we see as fans. But this is a game for the long term, and patience can help weather the proverbial storm of a 162 game season,
Personally, you need to have a mix of fire and ice like my man Jon Snow and Danny Targarean. Thats the perfect mix. Get pissed at the right time, but also know when to keep your cool. I hated watching Joe get kicked out of the Milwaukee game last weekend with CJ on the mound because it’s basically a signal to CJ that you can get pissed off too. And he did. And he ended up walking in the tying run. Like even when Joe decides to get fired up it comes off weird. I think Francona does that the best, but that’s just me and I digress.
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My favorite game to plan on Red Line Radio is figuring out where someone is on the Red Line relative to where they are in life. In this case, I would put Joe at the Fullerton stop at rush hour on a Thursday in May. Place is hopping with all walks of life, busy as all hell and loaded with options to go wherever you want. Joe is in the drivers seat for the next couple weeks. And he really has the power to either lead the boys with outstanding managerial decisions. Or he could fuck up and get on a purple line express to the Skokie Swift yellow line and not think twice about it. It’s certainly a risk area, but I think Joe will rise to the occasion and make the right moves. He’ll catch the brown line to Quincy and be at work on time if that makes sense. Maybe a little sweaty when he gets off. Maybe he forgot his headphones or spilled his coffee. But at the end of the trip he’ll be where he needs to.
LAST QUESTION
I have no idea and hopefully this does not happen. I’m closing with this because I want to use it as a basis for reflection. Joe Girardi absolutely BLOWS compared to Joe Maddon and no way shape or form would he be an improvement to Maddon. And honestly that’s how I feel with pretty much every alternative manager. Like who would be able to take a back seat to Theo’s front office? Who would want to own this media circus the way Joe does? Who would be able to relate and connect with a roster filled with 24-27 year olds? I’m listening guys because honestly I don’t know who is available that could do it. David Ross? I suppose maybe if he had a few hundred games of managerial experience in the minors then yeah I’ll stack him up after getting to see how that goes. But don’t piss on my head and tell me it’s raining like there’s a bazillion other dudes out there that would be better than Joe.
Yes he sucks at managing a bullpen. But uh news flash guys, this bullpen fuckin SUCKS and it’s injured to all hell. Even if that hamstring injury is Joe’s fault, it’s still Pedro Strop’s hamstring that got fucked up running at 70%. Weird weird weird. I just think managing a shitty bullpen is a shitty thing to do in the first place.
As for the regression for players, maybe the front office should figure out a way to maximize playing time for the core group of guys they want to roll with moving forward and not ask Joe to play musical chairs with every lineup. Maybe give him a 28 million dollar right fielder that can be awesome all the time and not in 3 week stretches. Or how about signing free agent pitchers that don’t completely suck at being good or healthy. It’s not rocket science. It’s baseball.
Yes, Joe has pissed me off. But I’m not selling him down the river without a better solution. I’ve reasoned through your questions, talked to myself a lot, considered every angle and the best I can come up with is this: it’s been so good, it is still so good and until he proves otherwise, Joe Maddon is my manager, this is my team and Cubs in 4.
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PS – this blog, including my tacit approval of Joe Maddon is not fixed in time but rather subject to updating at my sole discretion.