2018 NBA Season Preview Series: Oklahoma City Thunder
Boy am I glad the Warriors didn’t win this poll. For a super team, they’re already 0-1 on the season and you have to love that. Finally OKC was able to beat them at something. Did you know in their last 11 head to head matchups OKC is just 2-9? Not great! But today is their day and we’ll sit down and lock in to what should be a rather interesting 2018-19 season for OKC. As we know, the window for OKC to win is now, and while they made have a slightly longer window than some other contenders in the West, I wouldn’t fault OKC fans for getting a little restless. This team has too much talent to be a first round exit, something they’ve now done in back to back seasons. Of course, before we start talking about what to look forward to for this upcoming season, we first have to relive what was a pretty entertaining 2017-18 campaign.
2017-18 Season Highlights
As we know, to win in this league, especially in the West, you need top end talent. After OKC was able to keep Paul George with his massive extension, it’s safe to say that between Westbrook, George, an Adams, they have elite players at three important positions. The Thunder are certainly not new to this idea of legit expectations, it feels like the basketball world has expected a lot from them for years. Did you know that since 2009-10 they’ve never won fewer than 45 games and have won at least 50 in five of those seasons? Outside of these last two years they tend to go pretty deep in the postseason as well, but that was mainly during the Durant Era. Can this group get back to that type of postseason run? Well let’s have a look at what they’re dealing with
You know what you’re looking at right there? The most expensive roster in the NBA. At a total cap of $145,278,413, there is not a team in the league, and that includes GS, that has a more expensive roster in the entire league. The good news the average age of this roster is just 25.5 which is why I mentioned their window is still wide open for at least the next few years. In fact, of the Top 6 most expensive rosters in the league, OKC has the youngest average age. That’s important. In looking at this roster there’s reason for excitement because it will look a little different than the underachieving team from last year. First and foremost, the big news was keeping George. I think we all thought he was as good as gone, so to lock him up for years to come is huge for this small market franchise. With him and Westbrook, they have two Top 15 players locked up. But there are other additions that may not have made the same sort of waves, but to me are equally as important.
– Dennis Schroder: Look, he has his limitations, but you bet your ass he’s a better option than giving legit minutes to Raymond Felton. If anything were to happen and they needed a reserve guard to step in and start, as an OKC fan you’re waaaaaay more comfortable with Schroder in this spot. He has proven he can be a starter in this league and can sort of carry you offensively every once in a while, so while his $15M is a bit pricey for a backup point guard, you can certainly do worse
– Nerlens Noel: This signing happened early in the summer, and frankly I love it for the Thunder. They get a super athletic big to play next to Adams when they want to go big, and seeing as how he’s at just $1.7M, there’s almost no risk. If he works out and saves his career, great. If he flops and shows he’s no longer an NBA caliber big, it’s no big deal since you were barely playing him. Remember, the Thunder were 5th in rebounding and 11th in blocks last season, two things that Nerlens Noel definitely thrives in
– Andre Roberson: By FAR this is the biggest addition to this roster. I don’t know if the casual NBA fan realized how important Roberson is to what this team does, but from a defensive standpoint he is crucial. Yes, he shot is a big time concern and he really only hits corner threes, but what he brings on the defensive end is so valuable. After suffering a season ending knee injury last January the jury is still out how quickly he’ll be able to return to his old form, but his impact is pretty clear in my opinion. Last season, while Roberson was on the court the Thunder had a RIDICULOUS 96.4 Drtg. The second he stepped off the floor, it ballooned to 107.6. Their Net Rating dropped from 10.0 to 0.5. Now factor in that the Thunder won’t have that defensive liability in Melo on the floor anymore, the return of Roberson is going to be huge.
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– Hamidou Diallo: Diallo dropped during this year’s Draft, but don’t sleep on his potential in this system. The Thunder could use as many athletes and shooters as they can get, and Diallo looked fairly decent this summer. At just 20 years old, he should be someone to keep an eye on as the season goes along and Billy Donovan decides whether or not he can trust him. He’s super raw at this point, but it wouldn’t shock me if we see him crack a couple second unit lineups here and there.
Obviously the big news recently is surrounding Russell Westbrook and his knee surgery. To me it’s a non factor, and as long as he doesn’t miss any time in the regular season, I wouldn’t worry too much about it. Maybe that’s just me being optimistic, but it certainly didn’t seem serious in any of the summer workout videos I blogged, and that’s always a tried and true method of evaluating NBA players. So if we’re assuming the Thunder can stay relatively healthy, can they even contend with the HOU/GS’s of the world? Well my first question has to do with Billy Donovan. We saw Donovan have that instant success in his first year reaching the WCF, but since then he’s lived around the 47-48 win mark and a first round exit. Personally I believe in him as a coach and certainly think it would be silly to say he’s on the hot seat, but at some point he has to show that Year 1 wasn’t a fluke. It’s a little wonky, but in looking at some advanced metrics from OKC last year, I learned that they were 19th in Consistency Rating at 14. Basically, the higher the number, the more unpredictable the team is. For a point of reference the Celtics/Rockets were among the leaders in that category, which makes some sense. You knew what you were getting night in and night out with those two. I don’t know if that’s a reflection on Donovan, but I am of the belief that your coach has a lot to do with your consistency. He’s been decent at ATOs during his OKC tenure, but this is definitely a big season for Donovan in my opinion.
Offensively, we all know Westbrook can either win or lose you a game with his shooting. Guy loves to get his FGA up and there’s really no stopping it. At this point I don’t even blink an eye when I see Westbrook with like 28 FGA or something like that. As a team, the Thunder are one of those teams that heavily rely on isolation. They run it 10.5% of their possessions (2nd in the league), and score 0.82 points per iso possession (not great). In fact, that ranks 23rd in the league and unfortunately is not changing anytime soon. They score on just 39% of their isolation plays, which is not exactly ideal. That’s basically the Knicks and what happens when you have Westbrook go crazy and not be all that efficient. Where they are much better is out of the P&R, where they have the 6th highest points per possession, and that makes sense. Both PG13 and Westbrook can attack and draw the defense, forcing their opponent to choose between rotating and leaving Steven Adams open for a lob, or just letting the ball handler finish at the rim. This is something I would hope to see OKC run way more, and slowly move away from isolation as an offensive crutch. They also really thrive with guys coming off screens, with the 3rd best points per possession in that playtype. Running George and Westbrook off screens is the no brainer, but that’s why I’m intrigued by some of their other shooters and if any of them will be able to take a leap.
As much as Melo may have been washed up, one thing he was able to do was knock down shots his open looks in catch and shoot scenarios. This is a big role for OKC given how they attack the basket, so it’s going to probably fall on someone like Terrance Ferguson to fill in there. Of all the players I’m interested to see if they can take a leap, I’d say Ferguson is high on that list. He shot a respectable 35% on catch and shoot threes last season, but he’s going to have to improve on his open looks, where he shot just 32%. He played just 12 minutes a game, but it wouldn’t shock me if we saw that number jump to around 18-20 minutes a night. A great athlete and respectable two way player, in my opinion he should get the first opportunity to get some of those open Melo looks with the second unit/starters. As I’m sure they are also going to be conservative with Roberson to start, that’s why Ferguson’s development is even more crucial.
Defensively, the Thunder are a team that make it almost impossible for their opponent to score off turnovers, are among the league leaders in steals, and obviously do a great job of protecting the paint and cleaning up on the defensive glass. They should be considered contenders not just because of the talent on their roster, but because of how they defend. With so many elite offensive teams in the West, being one of the few defensive monsters to go along with GS/HOU is why people choose to believe in OKC. I know they have postseason issues, I know there are some who think Westbrook does more harm than good, but outside of their brutal isolation numbers, the Thunder do have the formula to be taken seriously. They’re about average in the outside shooting department, get to the line better than nearly every team in the league, and had the 7th best net rating out of everyone.
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The Thunder will undoubtedly look different this upcoming season, but their expectations haven’t really changed. This is the group they are committed to since they have like negative cap space, and I can’t wait to see how all the drama unfolds. With a full season under their belt together combined with a disappointing end to last season, this is a big time opportunity to see how they respond as a collective unit. Will they actually be as good as we all want them to be, or will it be another season filled with underachievement? Hopefully it’s the former and not the latter.
Official Greenie Prediction: 51 wins