Ranking Who Can Actually Win Survivor 49

We're four episodes into Survivor 49 and it's shaping up to be a pretty solid season so far. There hasn't been any crazy blindsides or gameplay, but it seems like a promising cast that could be capable of giving us some exciting moments down the stretch. 

The main storyline thus far has been the absolute decimation of the original blue tribe (Kele). They went to tribal in the first two episodes, then lost Jake to a snake bite and med evac, and then lost another challenge to go down to just two remaining tribe members (Sophi and Alex). The Jake snake bite was oddly probably the most interesting moment of the season so far, just because it's the first time we've really seen Survivor break the fourth wall as much as they did. We saw a producer use an iPhone, the island safety guide book all contestants get, and base camp where all the crew lives when they examined Jake. Some thought that Jake shouldn't have actually been killed since it was only a "dry bite." But the liabilities Survivor would've had to potentially deal with after sending a contestant who got bit by a venomous snake back into the game probably would not have been worth it. 

So that got us down 14 and a swap last night into two tribes of 7. Our new tribes became:

Yellow: Matt, Jason, Savannah, Rizo, Jawan, Sophi, Nate

Blue: Sage, Shannon, Steven, Alex, MC, Kristina, Sophie

That gave the original yellow (Hina) tribe a majority of Steven, Sophie, MC, Kristina on one tribe and the original red tribe (Uli) a majority of Nate, Rizo, Jawan, and Savannah on the other. That led to Matt getting voted out last night, which brings us to 13. Now that we've seen people to go tribal council besides just the Kele tribe, I figured it was time to look through the cast and see who can actually win this thing. 

Winner Rankings - This is a ranking of who I think can actually win. Not who the next person voted out will be. Someone can be ranked last but get dragged to the end as a goat, it just means I don't think they will win even if they can last long. 

Tier 3 - Not Winning

13. Sage - I like Sage. I think she's endearing in her quirks. She's made me chuckle a few times. That being said, a contestant who is routinely shown burping and farting while also talking about she keeps a collection of her blackheads in a jar .... is probably not winning. Maybe the most opposite of a winner's edit that you could possibly have. She also was on the outside of an alliance at her old tribe and is now on the outside of an alliance at her tribe. So things are not looking good for her. 

12. Jawan - I think Jawan was the big loser of last night's vote. He is clearly on the bottom of his old Uli alliance (Nate, Rizo, Savannah) and it seems like Sophi may have even overtaken him in the hierarchy now. With the split 3-2 vote, he could've swapped his vote from Matt and instead voted with Matt and Jason to take out Nate and really shake up the game. But he didn't do that. And now he's still on the bottom with less allies to flip the game. I don't think Jawan is dumb. He seems like he knows the game. But he's shown me nothing so far to think he can actually win. 

11. Sophie - (The one that was originally on the yellow tribe who complained about the fruit reward yesterday). She's only this low because we've quite simply seen nothing from her so far. Now granted, it's mainly because she hasn't been to a tribal council yet. But I still just feel like if she was going to be the winner, we would know more about her through four episodes. (I guess Erika from 41 would be the exception to this rule). 

Tier 2 - I guess a very slight chance? But probably not!

10. Kristina - Basically everything I said above about Sophie applies to Kristina. She gets the slightly higher ranking though just because we did get an emotional moment from her yesterday talking about her mom passing. And emotional moments like that are something that usually align with winner potential. But I still don't see it from her. 

9. Shannon - I can't make heads or tails of Shannon. One week she looks like a hippie praying to the ocean. And the next she's all about Jesus. Overall, she does seem smart. She's good at connecting with people. She almost feels like she should be a cult leader in another lifetime. So I can see her lasting for a little bit in this game, but something about her seems just a little bit too "out there" to actually win the game. 

8. Jason - I have been a bit underwhelmed by Jason so far. He's been great at puzzles but hasn't shown us much else. He kind of laid over and died yesterday and just hoped that he wouldn't be the one voted out. He didn't even seem to realize that him and Matt were obviously the two on the bottom. There's a chance he's still scrappy enough to last a bit but I'm not getting winner vibes. 

Tier 1 - Potential Winners. I hate making this list so big but I really think all of these people have a chance to win. Another positive of this season is we have so many potential winners still in the game. 

7. Alex - I've been impressed with Alex's game so far. He did a good job surviving his original disaster of a tribe and has made some solid alliances. He's clearly a smart guy. But I'm not sure I get winner edit vibes from him. I feel like every episode is him talking about working on Capitol Hill and being a political guy. And I can see those weasel-like tendencies coming back to bite him at some point. 

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6. Nate - I've really liked Nate so far. Mature, level-headed, self-aware and likable. I thought he maybe got a tad too emotional last night when Matt threw his name out, but he did immediately get him out so points for that. And he's in a solid alliance with a majority on his tribe and friends on the other side. I think he'll make a deep run. 

5. Rizo - He's been one of the MVPs of the season so far. Had a great win in the opening challenge against Alex. Funny confessionals. In a good alliance. Has an idol (that his allies helped him find). He's another guy I think will make a deep run. But I think he's too likable where his allies will realize they don't want to sit next to him at the end which will hurt his chances of reaching Final Tribal Council. 

4. MC - I've loved everything about MC so far. She's a beast in challenges. Made some alliances. And comes off just super likable and easy to get along with. We haven't seen a TON of her (again mainly because she hasn't been to tribal). But she seems like a safe bet to make the merge and could be in a good position to make a deep run from there with her challenge and social abilities. 

3. Sophi - She's been another MVP of the season so far. We've seen a ton from her with all the tribals she's been to and she's impressed me every step of the way. She did a masterful job saving herself in the vote with Alex to get Jeremiah out. And she's immediately assimilated into a new alliance on her new tribe. She's like a cockroach who just knows how to stay alive and I mean that as a high compliment.  

2. Savannah - She's in a very good position with her core alliance even after the swap and has a new ally in Sophi after they clicked instantly. She just seems to be well-liked by everyone while maintaining some power in the game. She's also had a ton of confessionals which is a good sign for someone who's only been to tribal council once. Makes me feel like she'll be around for awhile as a major player in the game. 

1. Steven - I don't have a ton of reason to make Steven my winner pick but I made him my winner pick after Week 1 so I have no reason to change it. Another guy we haven't seen go to tribal yet but he seems well-liked and smart. Had some emotional backstory in Episode 1 or 2 about his teenage years. Another good sign. I'll keep him as the winner pick until he gives me a reason not to. But I truly believe any of these top 7 people can win and I'm excited to see how it all plays out!

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