The Kawhi Leonard Situation Inches Even Closer To A Complete Disaster As The Clippers Are Now Reportedly "Done Building Around Kawhi"

Ronald Martinez. Getty Images.

They say when it rains it pours, and that's exactly how I would describe what's currently going on with Kawhi Leonard and the Clippers. I don't mean to be repetitive with these blogs or anything, it's just that with each passing day we have new "reports" around a story that just doesn't seem to want to die. If anything, things are intensifying. Sometimes it's new info from Pablo Torre that exposes the team and the NBA for being full of shit, sometimes it's reporting from John Karalis at the Boston Sports Journal who uncovers more shady business by a fugazi tree company in terms of how they dished out stock, and sometimes it's from ESPN's Baxter Holmes who had quite the story of how the Clippers are currently viewing the Kawhi Leonard Experience

If you have the time, I highly recommend giving the full story a read, as it's a fantastic look at the entire Leonard saga. From when Ballmer first bought the team in 2014, the drama around Kawhi and the Spurs which led to the Clippers bringing in Kawhi in 2019, concerns about his health, and obviously, this latest scandal. 

Given the Clippers' current situation and the possible penalties coming their way as a result of this entire scandal, for the sake of this blog I'd like to focus on one part of this story in particular

Multiple GMs and other league executives said they expect Leonard to play out his contract with the Clippers, which is set to end after the 2026-27 season.

But even then, one former staffer said, the organization's focus has shifted. "They're done building around [Kawhi]," he said.

"They know that and he knows that."

Let's just assume that if Adam Silver and the NBA dole out any sort of punishment, it won't be to suspend Kawhi for the season or void his current contract. While that stuff is technically on the table, it does feel a little aggressive to assume that's what will happen. My guess is some fines, loss of draft picks, and maybe Ballmer gets banned for a year. But for Kawhi? I can't see him getting anything harsher than being required to cut a check.

Where this gets interesting is if that quote is actually true. Are the Clippers ready to get out of the Kawhi Leonard business? If that's actually the case, there's a strong chance things ultimately end up going in a completely different direction than maybe we all thought.

If you're getting out of the Kawhi business, that means you're smashing the rebuild button. Remember, the Clippers do not own their first round pick for the next 4 years. It's very, very hard to "rebuild" if you don't have picks, or if when you stick the picks you do own are pick swaps with a team that just so happens to be the defending NBA champs and someone who wins 50+ games with ease. That means their pick will stink, which is a tough break if you're tasked with rebuilding using that pick.

Why does this matter?

How would you say a team that's about to enter a rebuild obtains draft capital? A trade. What good does letting Kawhi Leonard play out his deal and leave in free agency do for the Clippers? Sure, it opens up max space and whatnot, but if Kawhi is out, and Harden/Bradley Beal are two years older is the idea that the Clippers would still be some sort of hotbed free agent destination? 

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When you look at the big names that are hitting the market in the summer of 2027 as UFA, you see names like Steph Curry (not moving), Jimmy Butler (will be 38), Zach LaVine (I could see him going back to LA), Trae Young (if no extension), James Harden, Jordan Poole, Tyler Herro, Andrew Wiggins, RJ Barrett (if no extension), DeMar DeRozan (will be 38), etc. Of that list, I'd say only LaVine is a realistic option, and even then, what does that get you in terms of a rebuild? At that point, LaVine is already 32 years old. 

If the Clippers are truly over the Kawhi bullshit and understand they are about to enter a rebuild phase (not even factoring in any potential addition pick loss as a result of this scandal), then they would need to operate like any other team that's done with a player. They need to flip it for assets

Now I know what you may be thinking

"Who the hell would trade for an always injured aging Kawhi Leonard at that price?"

and in some ways, that's a fair question. I would just say not to forget, even Ben Simmons and his horrific contract were traded and he's nowhere close to the player that Kawhi is. You may have to take back 65 cents on the dollar, but everyone in the NBA can be traded, even Kawhi at that age and price. 

While it seems unrealistic that we're about to see Kawhi traded this season (although we have had some big October trades before), after this season is a much different story. As a $50M expiring, there's some value there that might be enough for a team to take a swing. Think of it like a re-do of the 2019 Raptors situation. My point is, the Clippers need to accumulate assets for a post-Kawhi world, and the only way you do that is to trade him before he hits UFA in the summer of 2027.

So, if we're to believe this former staffer that the Clippers are done building around Kawhi and want to get out of the Kawhi Business, that means a trade is essentially inevitable. Just for fun, what if the Pelicans decide they're done with Zion and try and move his $44M? What if the Blazers are able to use Jrue Holiday's $38M and pieces, maybe Jerami Grant and his $36M?? The Suns may learn Jalen Green isn't the answer and use his $36M and pieces. In 2 years the Cavs will have to start making their 2nd apron decisions, what if they use Jarrett Allen's $30M for an expiring?  The point is, there are pathways to putting together a Kawhi Leonard package. 

What makes this so interesting is the fact that when Kawhi is healthy and on the floor, he's still very much a problem

He's going to give you an ultra-efficient 23/6/3 if you can stomach the fact that he'll also miss nearly 30+ games a year, but nothing we've seen from Kawhi when he's active suggests from a skillpoint standpoint he's starting to decline even as he enters his mid 30s. The health and availability may be a disaster, but the caliber of basketball being played is not. There will absolutely be a market for him and teams willing to take on that risk, especially if they are knocking on the door of contention. 

So while all the focus at the moment is on the scandal and any potential punishment that may come as a result of it, in reality, the much more realistic ending to all this is that Kawhi is traded after this season. This entire experiment, dating back to the Paul George trade was always a risk, and I think we can now say with confidence that it ended up being nothing but a complete disaster.