“I’m Not Sure It’s Gonna Be The Step Down That People Anticipate.” - Celtics President Rich Gotham Tried His Best To Spinzone Things, But The Team's Roster Doesn't Lie

Adam Glanzman. Getty Images.

I'm not sure if it's denial or what, but I find it fascinating how all over the place people continue to be about the 2025-26 Boston Celtics as they enter their "gap" year. It's almost at the point where I can't help but feel like I'm being gaslit. I get that it's been over a decade since the Celts have had to be in this position so maybe people forget what that looks like, but it's OK to just be honest with where things stand for this transition season. 

This is an itch I've been trying to scratch over the last few days as my mentions have been filled with this idea that there won't be some massive dropoff, the team will still win over 40 games etc. As a generally optimistic fan, I can understand that in pretty much any other circumstance. Now, it just feels like denial and an unwillingness to accept their current reality. 

What sparked me to write this blog was hearing from Celtics President Rich Gotham touch on this subject today, while the team unveiled a new early education center down in Providence

OK first things first, it's his job to say this, so anyone who expected the president of the team to come and say something like

"Oh yeah, we're about to be hot dogshit"

isn't really being realistic. That was about as PR of an answer as you're going to get, but the only problem is we all have eyes. We've seen what the front office has done in terms of filling out this roster for the gap year, and at the end of the day, your talent is your talent

But what's interesting about those clips is they match a lot of what my mentions have been filled with ever since the firesale began. People see the names Jaylen Brown/Derrick White/Payton Pritchard/Sam Hauser and think nothing will really change. In reality, EVERYTHING has changed.

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I agree that the team will play hard and all that stuff, no duh. But in the NBA, talent matters. This is a roster that will be without 5 of their top 9 players from last season, one of which is their best player, who did everything for them on both ends of the floor. The replacements for those roster holes are your own unproven young players (Walsh, Baylor, Hugo etc), minimum contract castoffs from other teams that didn't play all that much (Garza, Minott), as well a big rotation that was your 4th center (Queta) and a PF that couldn't even crack the rotation (Tillman). 

Not to mention what you lost in terms of perimeter defense (Jrue Holiday) has for the moment been replaced by a guard who statistically was the worst perimeter defender in the league last year (Simons), and we don't even know if he's going to be on the roster come October!

This isn't your standard case of "dooming" where even during the 2023-24 title season you had people being negative just ot be negative. This is simply looking at what the roster is and how limited the ceiling is, barring some sort of unpredictable prayer where all the unproven players turn out to be hits (unlikely).

Just think about it logically. With no Tatum on the floor, the gravity for EVERYONE changes. Jaylen's creation becomes harder because his spacing is worse. You no longer have the 5 out lineups filled with 40% three point shooters at every spot. If an opposing defense switches, what's the plan? Let DWhite attack in isolation? Who is creating the advantage off the dribble outside of Jaylen? The entire offense will have to adjust, and that adjustment is coming from a roster that has zero continuity.

Defensively, things are even worse. Do you feel comfortable about switching? I don't know how you could considering Garza/Queta/Tillman are all pretty slow-footed and not exactly blessed with quick lateral speed. What made the previous version of the roster so good was that there were no weaknesses for an opponent to attack, whether that was on the perimeter or at the rim. Now? There are holes everywhere. The team currently does not have a PF over 6'9, so what do you think the rebounding is going to look like? As a reminder, Jayson Tatum is this team's best rebounder.

To be a "winning team", I view that as a team that's somewhere in the mid 40s in terms of win total. Do people understand what it requires to get that high? At the very minimum, you need to be top 10 in either offense or defense, and it's closer to 5 than 10. I ask you, what end of the floor is that going to happen with this roster? Defensively, no chance. Way too many holes. I'd be shocked if this team wasn't in the bottom 3rd of team defense. Let's be generous and say it's 20th. Well, that means your offense is going to have to be no lower than 10th to even have a chance at a positive net rating, and even that feels like a stretch because the Celtics are now MUCH easier to guard, don't have the same level of shooting available and are relying on players in their rotation that literally have almost no NBA experience.

Look at the Heat from last year, for example. They had a dogshit offense (21st) and a top 10 defense (9th), and what was their record? 37-45 with a +0.4 net rating. Even if you think this is "down year" in the East, I'm not sure how that matters because the Celts are part of that "down". 

The thing is, this is all OK! It's by design! Given Tatum's injury it presented the Celtics with the rare opportunity to reset. Given how expensive their roster is, they must add cheap, cost-controlled young talent that can be part of the next iteration of the team. How do you do that? Through the draft and finding diamonds in the rough on unproven minimums. Well, to give yourself a chance at finding that player in the draft, you need to lose. Given this is all happening to a title-contending team, the Celts couldn't flat-out tank and sell off all their best players. So what did Brad do? He filled out the margins with players that, for this season, lower their ceiling. It's not 20-win bad, but it's not 45-win good either. Unless someone gets hurt, they'll most likely float around 35-39 wins and see where that gets them. If it's the Play In, hopefully they lose it and then get some Lottery luck because that's what is most important for the roster once Tatum returns next year.

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So I get why Rich Gotham had to say that shit, but I do think from a fan perspective, you have to be honest about what this roster is. There's always a chance we're surprised, but to me, that's wishful thinking and not really based in their current reality. I don't think that makes you a bad fan or anything for pointing out, it is what it is.

This is a gap year whether you want to accept it or not. Brad Stevens has told you as much through his own actions.