The Final Day Of The Play In Tournament Has Arrived As Four Teams Battle For The Chance To Most Likely Lose In The First Round

Greenie4/18/2025 5:45 PM

Welcome to Day 3 of the NBA Play In Tournament! Can you feel the excitement? No? Well, I guess on some level that's understandable. While I'll never turn down the opportunity to watch playoff-esq caliber basketball, when it comes to the batte for the 8th seed in both conferences, today is more what I would call a "formality" than anything else. Said another way, coming out of GS/MEM in the 7/8 game, it's not crazy to think that GS has as good a shot as any to upset the #2 seeded Rockets (is it an upset if GS is favored? You know what I mean) and advance.

But the winners from today? Unless you truly believe we're about to see some all time weird shit similar to the Mavs/We Believe Warriors 1v8 upset back in 2006-07 when the 67-15 Mavs lost in 6 games to that Baron Davis squad (Shoutout Ike Diogu!!), it's very unlikely that whoever comes out of today's games will matter.

Both the Thunder and the Cavs have just completed two of the best regular seasons in NBA history. That is a fact, not an opinion. In all of NBA history, there have been just 6 instances of an 8 seed beating a 1 seed, so it's not exactly something that happens all that often. I will say though, if you're a Heat fan and you are looking for something to grasp onto, the Heat did just pull this off in the 2022-23 playoffs when they took out the 1 seeded Bucks as the 8th seed. That year, they beat the Bulls to secure the 8th seed. Sound familiar?

Is it possible that whoever comes out of today's games can push a first round series? Maybe to 6 games? I suppose. Crazier things have happened, but given what NBA history says about the 1v8 match up combined with the caliber of teams that are sitting at the top of each conference, it's not exactly a hot take to suggest either team will have too much trouble advancing.

Having said that, let's still get you ready for tonight's action

Atlanta Hawks (8) vs Miami Heat (10)

Head to head: Tied 2-2

There's a strong chance that for the rest of time, both the Hawks and the Heat are destined to always be in the Play In. If this matchup feels familiar, it's because it's a rematch of the 2022-23 Play In where the Hawks beat the Heat in the 7/8 matchup. Both rosters certainly look a bit different this time around, but what's interesting about that 2-2 series split is 3 of the 4 games came after the trade deadline with the Heat winning the final 2. Granted, those were at home, whereas tonight they'll be on the road, but I think at this point once we get to this time of year you have to change how your brain views the Heat.

After seeing what they did to a Bulls team that was playing pretty legit basketball for the last 20+ games of the season, it's hard to not think the Zombie Heat are ramping up for another playoff run. Tyler Herro is playing great basketball at the moment and the idea of him going up against another terrible defense is something that can't be ignored

Bam still exists and is one of the most versatile defenders on planet earth, and we still haven't even seen the Heat Dark Magic shooting variance game yet, considering they only shot 13-35 from deep in their win the other night. If you've watched any Heat playoff series since about 2020, you know what I'm talking about. At some point, if they are able to stay alive you are going to see the 18-38 type of performance that will keep you up at night. Trust me, I've lived it too many times to count.

Then, of course, there's the Spo factor. He's going to have a plan, and year after year he finds a way to steal games in the playoffs. Sure, that didn't really happen in the first round last year, but there was that Game 2 win where the Heat made like 20+ 3s. That's what makes them so tough to gauge. For the majority of the time, this team will barely score 100 points. Then all of a sudden, they start turning you over, they start getting hot from deep, and before you can even process what's happening, you've lost.

With Davion "Off Night" Mitchell surely getting the Trae Young assignment, there's a reason the Heat are favored on the road in this game. I trust their defense way more than I would trust the offense of the Hawks, especially when we just saw what the Hawks look like going up against a tough physical defense that can sometimes struggle to score. In a game like this, where it's win or go home and one bad shooting night ends your season, I tend to lean more towards the team that I can trust to get consecutive stops.

On the flip side, I imagine Dyson Daniels will get the Tyler Herro assignment, which means Bam probably can't have another 6-16 (1-5) performance given that his secondary scoring is now much more important. Same thing with Andrew Wiggins. If the Hawks are going to put their best perimeter defender on Herro, then Wiggins has to make them pay for it. Really, the Hawks' only path is to do tonight what they couldn't do against the Magic.

They have to take a much higher volume of 3PA. That's just the reality of today's NBA. In that loss to ORL, they were outshot 39-21 in terms of 3PA. The Magic didn't even shoot well (28%), but the volume was enough to make a difference (11 vs 4 3PM). If the Heat go to their zone, the Hawks have to be ready to launch and hope the shooting variance is on their side this time. The Heat LOVE to play these games that live in the 90s-low 100s. Their issue is when you play in the 110-120s, and you only get that way by taking 3PA. You will not beat the Heat with 2s, especially if they also give you a Dark Magic shooting game.

It would be silly to rely on FTs like the Hawks did in their last game where they took 34. The Heat simply don't foul anywhere close to the level that the Magic do. In fact, MIA leads the NBA in fewest fouls per game (15.5). They're also about middle of the pack in terms of limiting 3P%, so the formula for ATL is going to have to adjust. Add in the fact they're the 3rd worst team in terms of opponent 3P%, you can expect that the Heat are going to spam as many 3PA as possible. That's where you can get into trouble as the Hawks if you try and trade 2s for 3s.

I've just seen too many versions of the Zombie Heat this time of year to think they can't go on the road and snag this win. This may be ultimately where their ceiling is, but my guess is they move on.

Memphis Grizzlies (8) vs Dallas Mavericks (10)

Head to Head: MEM won 3-1

As of the writing of this blog there hasn't been an official ruling on Ja Morant's availability, but for the sake of this blog I'll assume he's playing, even if it's only at 75-80%.

Unlike the East, this matchup has a little more intrigue simply because of what it could mean in the next round. While I don't think either of these teams ultimately take out OKC, I do think they would be a tougher challenge than what the Cavs are about to face coming out of the East's bracket.

If there's one thing OKC struggled with last playoffs, it was size. It's why they went out and brought in iHart. Both of these teams in MEM/DAL present an interesting size challenge, and you know the Mavs feel somewhat confident in that matchup considering what we saw last year (albeit now they have to do it without Luka). It basically all comes down to AD. Can he dominate the MEM frontcourt like he just did against the Kings?

Who knows, maybe the Basketball Gods are throwing the Mavs a bone given everything that's happened with them these last few months, and since they won the 9/10 game and didn't enter the Lottery, I can't rule out that the Basketball Gods are going to continue to throw them a bone and get them into the first round. The fans deserve better, so perhaps this is what that looks like.

Because make no mistake, if the Mavs can have another night where they drop 120 on 49/50% splits and don't turn the ball over, they can easily win this game. There's a case to be made that they're facing the Grizzlies at the perfect time, with a hobbled Ja and a team that has been circling the drain for weeks now. It's not crazy to think AD could be the best player on the floor and Klay could get hot again from deep. Then you add in the "nobody believes in us" angle, and there is a path for the Mavs to pull this off on the road.

At the same time, with how the Grizzlies looked against GS, it's clear there is a talent gap between these two teams. The Grizzlies did just beat this team 132-97 while both sides played their role players, and then also by a score of 122-111 a month earlier (no AD). For them, the path to victory is the same as it was the last round

1. Don't turn the ball over

2. Don't give up a billion points off those TOs

3. Actually play defense

I can excuse losing that GS game mostly because it followed the script we've seen from the Grizzlies all year long. They are horrendous in terms of ball security/points off TOs, and they cannot beat any team over .500. They finished with 19 TOs for 27 GS points, and obviously lost to a team above .500.

The Mavs? They are well below .500, and the Grizzlies were an elite 34-9 against that caliber of team. Even with a hobbled Ja, they have enough talent available to be able to win this game in their own building as long as they take care of the basketball. I know that sounds very basic, but the turnover problem is easily the biggest issue with this MEM team. They can't seem to get out of their own way, but perhaps their season being on the line will snap them out of this type of carelessness.

They also have to do a much better job of figuring out how to involve JJJ, especially when they play the double big lineup with Edey on the floor. Too often in their loss to GS it felt like JJJ was just out there doing cardio. He wasn't really involved in any actions, given Edey is a much better screener, he didn't rebound, he was just sort of….out there trying to bury a million 3s.

Usually you'd think the better team would bounce back after a loss, especially at home, but the Grizzlies are in a weird spot given their slide. If you look at how they've done since the trade deadline, in addition to their Play In loss, they've basically lost to every single team with a pulse