I REALLY Like Today's Gambling Slate

RECORD

23-45-2 (-12.5 units)

Meh. Another so-so day yesterday. I can't call it a disaster. The Cubs did bail me out by comfortably covering the run line against the Cardinals in what turned out to be a controversial game because of Miles Mikolas' ejection. The Guardians beat the White Sox. I'm officially done putting my faith in Dylan Cease. Maybe last year was just a fluke because he has legitimately stunk this season. And the Mets, despite winning the game and rallying in the eighth inning before trading their closer David Robertson, were unable to cover the -1.5 run spread. Couldn't they have scored three runs against the fucking Nationals? That's why you're sellers. If I made excuses here, I'd feel like a horse's ass, but yesterday's slate was not incredible. There were only five games, and two of them involved the Tigers and Angels, and I'm pretty strict about not betting on or against my Tigers. So it was slim pickings. The slate today is much more robust. Let's take a look at today's picks.

Padres -1.5 (+130) against the Rangers

I feel like the Texas Rangers' schedule has been fucking brutal lately. I know the Padres have had a poor season, they've fallen short of expectations, but they still have a good roster, and Joe Musgrove has been their guy for several years. The value for the Padres here is fantastic. Musgrove has made 42 career starts at Petco Park, and he's been dazzling. He's 16-9 with a 2.73 ERA in his career at his current home field. You have Dane Dunning going for the Rangers. He's had a fantastic year, but much of his magic has worn off. He has a 4.27 ERA and a 5.05 FIP over his last ten outings. It is, admittedly, tricky betting against the Rangers because of how dangerous and prolific their offense is, but Musgrove has been feeling himself lately. His ERA since May 26 is an even 2.00. I like these odds, and I like him to take care of business against a great Rangers lineup tonight.

Yankees -1.5 (+140) against the Orioles

I feel bad betting against the Orioles because they're such a fun team to watch, but I'm all aboard the Cole train this evening. A -1.5 as a road favorite can sometimes be scary, but you must jump on this opportunity because you rarely get Gerrit Cole at such good value. People like to shit on Gerrit Cole for some reason. There is a contingency of people that think he's overrated, but he's not. He's been one of the 5 to 10 best pitchers in baseball for the last six years. He's had to carry the Yankees rotation on his back this entire season and has one of the best years of his career. You have Grayson Rodriguez going for the Orioles. He was solid his last time against the Rays, but I'm still not buying into the idea that he's turned a corner. He will find it one day, and when he does, he will be a phenomenal Major League pitcher. Given my luck, tonight will be the night he figures it out and goes seven scoreless. If that's the case, then I'll just have to accept that the gambling gods just don't like me, but I feel comfortable riding with Cole for the time being. 

Mike Moustakas to homer (+550) against the Blue Jays 

Mike Moustakas has seen something of a career revival in his age-34 season. He hasn't been setting the world on fire, but his OPS is over 100 points higher than it's been over the last two seasons. Much like the rest of the Angels, Moustakas will have his work cut out against a great pitcher in Kevin Gausman. Gausman leads the American League in strikeouts, FIP, and strikeouts per nine. Still, he is coming off of an outing in which he gave up for home runs against the Seattle Mariners, and Moustakas has consistently dominated him during his career. In 13 at-bats, Moustakas has an OPS of 1.462 against Gausman with two home runs. The Angels are all in. They put all their poker chips in the center of the table. If they want to get the baseball world to believe in them, it starts by winning series against good teams and as inconsistent as they can be, the Blue Jays are a good team, and they have their ace on the mound this evening. For the sake of my wallet, I hope Moustakas takes him deep.

All odds come from the Barstool Sportsbook. Follow Barstool Baseball on all platforms, including our YouTube page.