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Lafreniere, Kakko, Shesterkin, Buchnevich, Expansion & More In The Latest NY Rangers Mailbag

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61012/10/2020 12:15 AM
Minas Panagiotakis. Getty Images.

It's been a while since the last time I did a Rangers mailbag and that seemed to go over well. With an odd hockey year at a quiet point as we wonder if/when the next season starts, there's no better time than now to fire off another one. Let's jump right in…

Thoughts on Rangers holding Lafreniere back from WJC?

In a world of uncertainty, why risk it? I mean it was less than a year ago when Lafreniere was screaming on the ice after fucking up his left leg at this same tournament - a tournament he missed every practice & exhibition for due to an ankle injury. Tack on a worldwide pandemic along with the start of NHL camps projected, for now, some time in the next month and there's no reason for the Rangers to put their prized possession in any hint of jeopardy skating in an amateur tournament where he'd have a bullseye on his back every game. There's nothing to be gained at the WJC for a kid who just won gold there while being voted Best Forward/MVP despite the aforementioned injury costing him a couple of games. No-brainer move.

What is a successful season in your mind for Julien Gauthier next year?

 

I like Gauthier a lot. We didn't get to see much of him though in 12 regular season games as he skated single-digit minutes 9 times. He was also lining up with the likes of Lemieux, McKegg & Howden - not exactly the names you wanna see a former first-round pick who buried 26 in a mere 44 AHL tilts next to. This kid is 6'4/227 - he'd give Kreider a noogie whenever he wants. He's got good hands, can skate and shoot. Still, it didn't seem like Quinn was a huge fan of his as he was stapled to the bench fairly often. That could have a lot to do with trusting his own guys more than a newcomer with just five pro games under his belt though.

With Fast gone now there's a RW vacancy ripe for the taking and I gotta think Gauthier is the favorite to grab it. In terms of measuring a successful season for him I think it's simply whether or not he stays in the top nine. Potentially skating with Lafreniere and either Chytil or Strome would be a huge opportunity for him to produce as a net front presence, but more importantly he'll need to tighten up his all-around game & not give his coach a reason to dole out "tough love" demotions. His physical toolbox alone should give him the benefit of the doubt. We'll see.

Would you rather fall asleep on command or wake up on command? 

I never said they had to be Rangers-specific questions so I'm a fan of this. Pretty easy answer though. I wake up on command already. It's called an alarm. Now if I could be asleep when I want to instead of tossing and turning for hours with thoughts of fancy stats, salary cap & Margot Robbie before my brain finally shut down, that would be magical.

Big fan of Buchnevich, but long term does he have a future with the club?

 

Short answer - no. I just don't see it. His next deal is gonna be in the ~$5.5M/per ballpark. He's absolutely worth it, but it's simple math in terms of cap & manpower. There's only 4 top-six wing slots. Panarin's got one for the next six years. We don't wanna count chickens before they hatch and anoint them long-term, but by the time it's time to make a decision on Buch it'll still be the Blueshirts priority to ensure Lafreniere & Kakko are there too. Then there's Kreider who just inked for 7/$6.5M per. You can argue all you want about Buch being better than Kreider but it doesn't matter now. Kreids isn't going anywhere. Kravtsov's still a wild card there too.

Don't forget, there's names like Zibanejad, Shesterkin, Fox, Chytil and Kakko all due raises by 2022 & they still need a 2C. The Rangers aren't going to lock up Buchnevich for the kind of coin he's got coming to him just so they can stick him or Kreider on their third line. With one year left at $3.25M before his final RFA year, Buch's value is at its peak. If there's a big move to be made for help up the middle I'd be shocked if the 25 year-old Ethan Hawke lookalike wasn't at the center of it. He could also complicate their expansion list a bit. If he's not part of the long-term, Gorton's gotta be dangling him as a highly valuable chip.

Jumping far ahead, but who do you think is most likely lost to Seattle with how we are setup right now? 

 

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For those who don't know, most teams will protect 7 F, 3 D & 1 G which is what the Rangers will do. We already know how the defense & goalie situation will shake out. Trouba, Tony & Lindgren will be protected. Fox is exempt as are the rest of their prospects. Hajek could be their exposure. Between the pipes, Georgiev will get protection while Shesterkin is exempt & Keith Kinkaid will be exposed. Their forwards are what remains to be seen outside of Zib, Panarin & Kreider who must be protected due to their NMC's. Chytil is a lock for protection as well. The final three spots could be tricky.

For simplicity's sake let's give a spot each to Buchnevich and Strome. Provided the wheels don't fall off next season, both will be valuable to however far the Blueshirts go. Any potential moves involving either would most likely take place after the next Cup is awarded, and the only way Buch isn't on the protected list is if he's shipped out to strengthen their squad up the middle. If he's on the roster he's absolutely protected. Strome on the other hand would make perfect sense to expose IF they've acquired an upgrade & don't move him. Regardless, whether it's Strome or his replacement, there's another protected spot taken.

Then it comes down to Gauthier, Lemieux & Howden as you mentioned for the final spot. Me personally? I would rank them in that order in terms of importance but I have a feeling the organization feels the opposite way right now. This upcoming season is a big one to see if A) Gauthier gets legitimate time and B) Howden actually plays like Rangers brass keep trying to tell us he does. Lemieux staying or going is "meh" to me either way but I'd think Seattle would snag either of the other two ahead of him.

Top 9 next year?

 

I think it's pretty clear what names will be in the top nine. What the lines will be is another question entirely. Here's what I'd love to see them start off as. Obviously lines are fluid, especially on such a young squad:

Panarin-Zibanejad-Kakko
Kreider-Chytil-Buchnevich
Lafreniere-Strome-Gauthier

I think they should give the Bread/Zib combo another shot - and if those two click then there's no better spot for a second-year pro coming off a disastrous rookie season. Keep Kreider & Buch together while slotting Chytil in the 2C slot. He's made strides in his overall game, but is he truly a top-six pivot? Flank him with last year's top line wings and let's find out once & for all. That third line has as much offensive upside as you can ask for. Whether or not it works is another story, but Strome dropping to 3C duties & playing weaker competition should offset losing Panarin. Skating with the #1 overall pick & a right-shot Kreider clone (in terms of size and speed) isn't all that bad of a demotion anyway.

What do you want/expect to see from Kakko this year? 

 

 

Well if the lines shake out like I noted above I EXPECT to see a 50-point campaign next to Zib & Panarin and I WANT to see 60+ (aka 34-40 points based on a projected 56-game schedule). I know the common perspective after a brutal debut is to tone down the expectations but fuck that. You could tell by the naked eye Kakko was a different player once the RTP tilts kicked off and I think after a year under his belt adapting to NHL life 4000 miles from home, we'll start to see the dynamo who's become an afterthought of sorts thanks to Alexis Lafreniere.

More points? Laf by one because Kakko serves a three-game suspension for flattening Marchand's Adam's apple with a crosscheck. Edgy Kakko coming this season.

What are reasonable expectations for next season and did the Rangers not try hard enough to get Sergachev from the Lightning a couple years ago for what he just signed for?

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Next season is absolutely playoffs or bust. That's the barometer and I'm not alone.

 

Anything less isn't necessarily a failure with such a young crew but certainly a disappointment. In terms of new roster pieces, they're not significantly better or worse than last season's squad who would've challenged for a spot had the full schedule played out (yes, Lafreniere should be dynamite but don't underestimate Fast's importance). However, the Rangers were the 4th-best team in the East since Shesterkin's Jan. 7th debut in terms of point percentage (29 games) and now several valuable young pieces should make positive strides with an important year under their belts. There's no reason they can't earn a postseason invite regardless of how difficult their division stacks up. They're still a work-in-progress defensively, but a full season of Shesterkin and structural changes from new assistant coach Jacques Martin can only help. I expect to see that same level of success we saw once Lundqvist's heir took the throne.

As far as Sergachev, I spoke about the Rangers 2018 deadline on Chiclets right after it happened and named him specifically. I still don't understand why they felt compelled to make that trade for an underwhelming haul when I genuinely think they could've netted about the same in separate deals over the summer. Both were still under team control so why not wait for TB to blink and if they don't, who cares? Regardless, Sergachev could've easily been a non-starter and it sure seems like Tampa Bay was right.

Don't let his new deal for 3 years/$4.8M per fool you - anywhere else, that price tag is significantly higher. It's nice to have "we just won the Cup" leverage on top of no state tax. Plus, Sergachev didn't have arbitration rights until next offseason so you can look at the deal like this. TB could've forced him to play on a qualifying offer of under a mil (like Tony DeAngelo just had to) then pony up $6.5-$7M per in arbitration for the following two years. Instead they took that total & chopped it up over three years, netting them cap savings. Everybody wins.

P.S. - How about Montreal trading McDonagh & Sergachev for Gomez and Drouin? Yikes.

Shesterkin

 

I don't have any doubts whatsoever in Shesterkin being the real deal. Whether it's the KHL, AHL or NHL he's flat out dominated since 2016. You can tell by simply watching him he's unflappable and no moment will ever be too big for him. My only very slight concern is whether or not he'll stay healthy enough to be the workhorse the Rangers need. Granted, his rib injury was a fluke car crash but then a groin injury cost him the first two of a three game play-in series sweep at the hands of Carolina. Shesty doesn't come with heavy injury baggage so like I said, it's a slight concern - but health is pretty much the only thing that can stop him from being one of the league's elite for the next decade.

What prospect breaks the D lineup first? 

 

I guess if we're still considering Libor Hajek a prospect, he's certainly the most likely name to get first crack as the Blueshirts want to find out if they have anything in him before expansion. Even before an early-December knee injury put him on the shelf he was REALLY struggling. His 81 games with the Wolfpack have been no picnic either. The soon-to-be 23 year-old should be atop the list for no other reason but to answer the pending question of whether they traded McDonagh and Miller for an actual NHL defenseman or not.

Everyone wants to see K'Andre but we gotta pump the brakes a bit. Remember, he was drafted as a very high-ceiling but raw prospect who only started playing defense in high school. After a couple years with Wisconsin he still needs to do his time in the AHL. There's no reason to rush him up unless he's absolutely killing it.

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Tarmo Reunanen goes relatively unknown behind names like Miller, Lundkvist, Robertson, Jones, Schneider, etc. but could be a dark horse to snag a third pair spot. He's currently racking up major minutes playing in Finland so conditioning and readiness won't be an issue. Small but well-rounded, he probably would've been selected higher than the 4th round in 2016 if not for a couple back surgeries stalling his development prior to the draft. It wouldn't be a surprise if the 22 year-old ends up a late-bloomer and serviceable NHLer. Reunanen plans on proving that whenever Rangers camp opens but he'll really need to open some eyes.

Second-line center of the future?

 

 

Man this is anybody's guess. I can say with relative confidence whoever it's gonna be, he's not currently on the roster. I know there's a Chytil sect of believers but, while I still believe he's gonna be an excellent middle-six forward, I'm not so sure that'll be as a center let alone a 2C. Teams don't actively look to dump top-six pivots either so it's hard to predict where a trade will line up - but Gorton will be armed with ammo (Buch, D prospects, draft picks) & looking.

Phillip Danault was a popular potential UFA name but with Domi out of Montreal, that could be a precursor to him sticking around after his contract runs out next offseason. Nugent-Hopkins is lined up to be the big UFA fish at the position but if he's available, will the Rangers want to commit ~$8.5M for 7 years right before they do it for ~$10M/8 with Zibanejad? $39M tied up in 4 players (including Panarin & Trouba) is a scary proposition but if you can't groom your own centers, it's hard to acquire quality without paying a premium price.

Oh, and everyone can stop it with the Eichel nonsense. Nuking all the depth they're building is simply not worth one player & Buffalo holds all the trade leverage. Not happening.


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61012/10/2020 12:15 AM