Weird Trends At The Quarter Pole Of The NBA Season
A few weeks ago we took a look at some of the biggest surprises and disappointments from the NBA's first month, and for those who cried about sample size, here we are pretty much at the quarter pole of the NBA season. Still early, but a good enough chunk to where you can start to put some stock into certain trends. For all the talk about how ratings are down, I don't really get it. I feel like the NBA season has been awesome so far but I admit I'm pretty biased. Every night we seem to get some sort of historic performance from some of the best players in the entire league so I don't know why you wouldn't be watching. If you take a step back and look at the league as a whole right now, there are definitely some things that catch your eye that not many people expected. A quarter of the way through, here's what has stood out to me the most.
The top 6 seeds in the East are a combined 52-3 at home
You think getting homecourt will be important for this conference? If you keep this to the top 5 seeds it's 43-1 and it's a surprise that the one loss is MIL. You look at last season and only two teams had fewer than 10 home losses at home in the East last year, MIL at 33-8 and TOR at 32-9. Something tells me we could have a few more teams flirt with that if things stay this way. The surprises are at least in my opinion TOR (9-0) and MIA (8-0) but the top of the East is off to one hell of a start. Even the last two seeds are at least 2 games over .500 at home, something that can't be said about the West.
The NBA's best vs bad teams
Here's the confusing part about both the Lakers and Bucks start. There is no denying they have been fantastic through 20 games. For the most part, they've been completely dominant on both ends. But how much of that is who they truly, and how much of that is who they played? For example, the Bucks are 12-0 against teams below .500. That accounts for 57% of their games. The Lakers are 14-0 against teams under .500. That accounts for 70% of their games. On one hand, good teams beat the shitty teams they're supposed to and both of these teams have the two highest point differentials in the NBA. Who they play helps impact those numbers.
I think most people will be more willing to believe in the Bucks given what we saw last year, and December is going to be a big time month where one of these teams will be tested. The Lakers will face 9 teams that are currently above .500, while the Bucks will only face 5. In fact, the Bucks have the 25th hardest schedule the rest of the way sooooooo yeah.
Luka actually has the ball more than James Harden
Rockets fans have a weird complex where they feel like the national media is always against them, and I guess there is something to that when James Harden scores 60 points in 30 minutes and somehow isn't the player of the week. But this trend stood out to me because so often you hear about how bad James Harden is to watch. That his style is ruining basketball. For some reason though, we don't hear the same about Luka but here are the facts.
Luka leads the NBA in touches per game at 98.8
Luka leads the league in time of possession
Luka barely trails James Harden in average seconds per touch 5.95 vs 5.60
The biggest difference I would say is with Harden, you're getting mostly isolation and a whole lot of it. At least Luka is passing the ball (5th in the NBA in passes) and he does have a slightly lower usage. I just found it interesting that nobody seems to have a problem with how much Luka has the ball compared to someone like Harden.
Do the Clippers stink on the road?
I think we can all agree that the Clippers look pretty devastating. With everyone back they are more than a handful for like 90% of the league. The thing is, if you get them on the road, they suddenly look human. A total of 5 of their 6 losses have come away from Staples Center, and that's what is going to make the race for a top 4 seed in the West so interesting. You look at teams around them (LAL 8-1, DEN 5-2, DAL 7-2, HOU 5-4) and they all have been pretty stead on the road this season. As of now just 1 game separates them from the 3 seed to the 5 seed. We know they are dominant at home (12-1) but you have to wonder if a subpar road record might end up boning the Clippers come the Spring. Especially if all of these other West contenders are just as tough to beat at home. A slow start there could be costly.
The Sixers are tied for the most wins in games decided by 3 or less in the NBA among playoff teams
This is a trend I'm buying. I know there were questions about what this team would do late in games without Jimmy Butler, but they are 4-2 which leads the East top 8 and is only outdone by LAC's 4-0 among playoff teams out West. I don't think this is an accident considering both teams can be nails defensively and both have unstoppable forces offensively that you can dump it down to and get a late bucket. Part of taking that next step is being able to win close games, and remember the Sixers were 10-8 last year which was the third most among East playoff teams. They are figuring out ways to not poop themselves, even if it's against bad teams that they shouldn't be in close games with. They're winning them.
The Timberwolves are the best clutch team in the NBA?
Does it make sense? Nope, sure doesn't. But a quarter of the way through the season the Bucks have the highest net rating in the league in clutch situations (29.1). The Celtics have the best offense, the Bucks have the best defense, but overall net rating is the goddamn Timberwolves. It's gone a long way in helping them be 6-3 in clutch situations, but who the hell saw that shit coming.
We may just have to accept the Wizards offense is going to be around top 5 all year
For weeks they led the NBA in offense. A quarter of the way through they are now 4th, ahead of teams like TOR, LAL, LAC, BOS, MIA, BKN, PHI, DEN. I just listed some of the best teams in the entire fucking league. It feels weird to say, but this is a trend I think we have to buy?
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It's time to buy the Nuggets defending the three
This is significant. The Nuggets lead the NBA in FG percentage differential when guarding the three. Right now opponents shoot 4% worse than their average when playing DEN. They led the league last year, and when you look back at history, teams that tend to go deep in the playoffs thrive in this area. Here's what history tells us
2018-19 DEN led, lost a brutal game 7 in the 2nd round
2017-18: BOS led the NBA, made the ECF
2016-17: GS led the NBA, made the Finals
2015-16: GS was tied for 2nd in the NBA, made the Finals
2014-15: HOU led the NBA, made the WCF
I'm not saying it's the end all be all, but it's no surprise that the teams that end up defending the three the best in an era where every team shoots a shit ton of threes seems to go on deep runs. Maybe that's in store for DEN this season after proving this is an area they are for real in.
The Celtics are the worst first quarter team in history, yet still win
It makes no sense how a team can literally be at the bottom of the league in first quarter points, first quarter offense, first quarter net rating, yet still be 9 games over .500. Nobody digs themselves deeper holes early than the Celts do, and sadly I think this is . trend you have to buy as well because this shit even happened with Hayward in the lineup. It's frustrating, it's gross to watch, and chances are it catches up with them unless they figure it out soon.
I'm curious to see just how many of these trends still hold true after the next quarter of the season, my guess is a lot of them most likely will. There have been a bunch of surprises so far, this blog could have been another 10,000 words, so what else has stood out to you?