The Science is Settled: Statistically the 2024 Patriots are Even Worse Than You Think
[Author's Note: 99 times out of 100, a New England sports/pop culture guy is going to go with Will Hunting in the thumbnail of a blog about Patriots statistics. Giving some love to a Russell Crowe/Ron Howard Oscar winner is yet another example of the Old Balls Thornton Difference in action. You'll have to go elsewhere to get your lazy, obvious references.]
If it's not obvious by now from the 2,300-plus word Knee Jerk Reaction this morning, I'm not handling the current state of the Patriots well. At all. It would be tough enough if they had spent a few seasons being a reasonably competitive team and then fell back into the pack of mediocrity. Like, for instance, Tennessee or Green Bay. But to go from unprecedented heights for a human generation and then falling into the chasm they've been in for a few years now? That's more than any rational human can be expected to handle. Sure, I remember times like this in the past. I'm an old. But your memories have to go back to the Bush Administration to recall what that was like. The first Bush Administration. As in George HW Bush.
I'm going to refuse to let this break me though. My heart and soul are being tested for sure. Every Masshole will tell you the same. But my brain is refusing to give in to despair. Instead, I'm going to lean into the situation. To steer into this skid. eStare into the void and see if it stares back.
There's a technique in Psychology referred to as Exposure Therapy. Supposed you're treating someone with social anxiety. You put them in social situations until they can develop the mechanisms they need to solve their own problems. Or if someone has a fear of snakes, you have them handle snakes. Jordan Peterson has told a story of a patient he treated who was afraid of pretty much everything. So he took her to an embalming in order to gradually expose her to her fears in order to overcome them. And says she's much better off than she was. I for one have a crippling phobia about being emotionally invested in a shitty football team that never, ever gets better. And I don't think I'm alone.
So rather than pretend this isn't happening, join me now as we lay down in a vat of terrible stats until we can meet this issue head on, push through, and find a way to accept our current reality. In no particular order, but sort of saving the worst for last, here are the facts.
Sunday's loss wasn't simply terrible; it was historically bad.
At home. Holding a team to 15 or less. Rushing for 150 yards. Not turning the ball over, but forcing turnovers. That is a guaranteed recipe for victory every time you're fielding a team of professional football players. The only time it failed in 301 tries didn't count because it was done with a phony roster of temps. Picket line-crossing scab workers. That is, until now. And the Patriots managed to pull it off against the (still) lowest scoring team in the NFL. And it will probably never happen again, so let's raise a toast every October 6th and tell our grandkids we saw the impossible.
This much losing is impossible for people with our history to get used to.
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Ten regular season losses at Gillette over a span of 13 years. And 10 just since the start of last year. The lone W in Foxboro coming in that bizarre midseason win over Buffalo when Mac Jones hit Mike Gesicki in the end zone with 0:12 left and it felt like the team was turning a corner. It did. But then fell right down the basement stairs.
The Patriots best pass protection is still worse than almost anyone else's.
So a 43.8% pressure rate on Jacoby Brissett's dropbacks was the best the Pats have managed all season. But still worse than 30 other teams. So the ceiling for O-line coach Scott Peters' squad is below everybody else's floor. And Peters wasn't done any favors when David Andrews was lost for the season, because Nick Leverett allowed pressure on 10 of Brissett's 36 dropbacks, which is 27.7%. And with all due respected to Calais Campbell, Zach Seiler and Benito Jones, he wasn't facing Aaron Donald all day.
They hit even more historic benchmarks.
This one speaks for itself. Play five games. Score less than 62 points. Throw for less than 600 yards with two or fewer TDs and get sacked 19 or more times and, while you're not in a class all by yourself, it doesn't take long to call the roll. I'll save you the trouble of looking up the 1976-77 Buccaneers. In their expansion year they became the first team to go winless, on the way to an 0-26 start to their franchise. The '75 Chargers were 2-12. And the '76 Falcons somehow triumphed over adversity all the way to 4-10. Just bear in mind that the Mel Blount Rules that made it a crime to hit receivers didn't come into effect until 1978. So every pass play was essentially The Purge by today's standards. Yet that's the company we're keeping right now.
We all owe deep, heartfelt, sincere apologies to Matt Patricia.
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From that same account:
2023 - Matt Patricia
105 points (21PPG)
1,110 passing yards
690 rushing yards
Total 1,800
2023 Bill O’Brien
55 points (11PPG)
1,087 passing yards
374 rushing yards
Total 1,461
2024 - VanPelt:
62 points (12.4PPG)
718 passing yards
657 rushing yards
Total 1,357
On Patricia's watch in 2021, his offense put up 364 points. Yes, that was down around 100 points from the Wild Card team of the previous season. And Mac Jones did go from a promising, Pro Bowl rookie to a quivering, broken shell of a man. But that 364 was still good for 17th in the league. Alex Van Pelt's offense is on pace for 211 points, which would be the fifth fewest in franchise history for any non-strike year. And the combined record of the four teams with fewer than 211 is 8-52, or 2-13 per season.
Ethan Miller. Getty Images.Please forgive us, Matty P. It was sheer arrogance to think it was your fault. The very thought of 364 points right now is the stuff nocturnal emissions are made of.
Thanks for joining me on this little therapy session. I hope it helped. If nothing else, it's good to think that things can't get any worse. Even if we don't believe it.