Relax: You Should Not Be Freaking Out Over The Celtics Poor Defensive Start

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As good as the Celts 3-1 start may feel, I would say there are still aspects of what we're seeing them do on the floor that need to be a whole lot better. Their collapse against the Bulls showed us that some of their bad habits still exist and they still have the potential to fall in love with a style of play that ultimately gets them away from what makes them successful. 

A glaring issue through their first four games that I think we can all agree on is the Celts are giving up way too many points. At an average of 115.3 points allowed, that's good for the 5th worst among Eastern Conference teams. Only the Hornets, Nets, Pistons, and Pacers are giving up more points through 4 games. That's pretty bad considering none of those teams are regarded as good defensive units. 

Of course, we all know Rob is out and won't be back anytime soon. That's obviously going to impact things to a certain degree, but I also don't think it makes sense to lump all of defensive issues on the fact that they are playing without Rob. Mostly because we've seen this team still be effective defensively when Rob isn't playing. 

If you're someone who finds themselves getting very nervous about this team's defense, I get it. I also think it's important to really look at what's happening on the floor when it comes to the Celts effectiveness on that end to try and understand what's going on. 

Here's what the numbers tell us.

Entering tonight, the Celts own the 25th ranked defense with a rating of 117.0. That is for lack of a better word…horrendous. At the same time, they are not alone. The Warriors come in at 22nd at 114.8. The Grizzlies are dead last (30th) in team defense with a 121.6 rating. It's still a little early to truly put all your weight into these early season ratings. For example, the Lakers have the 3rd best defense in the NBA by the numbers and they stink.

So why am I telling you not to freak out? Because as I always say, context is important.

First, let's look at how the Celts are defending each zone and how opponents are doing. That'll help show us where the early issues live

At the rim: 53.9% (2nd in NBA)

In the paint (non restricted area): 50.8% (28th)

Midrange: 48.7% (24th)

Corner 3s: 58.3% (30th)

Above the break 3: 36.5% (22nd).

OK so what does that tell us?

The early problem areas aren't rim protection. But what we have seen the Celts struggle with in terms of early efficiency is the paint/midrange and the perimeter, especially from the corners. That's not all that surprising when you watch how they've chosen to defend certain sets, especially the P&R. Their bigs are dropping WAY too low which opens up that non-RA paint zone and the midrange. That's a pretty easy adjustment to make, even without Rob. It's also going to require the perimeter defenders to be much better at staying in front of their guy, fighting through screens etc. This is an example of that which stood out against the Bulls

Just like we saw this team struggle early last season, it generally takes some time to hash out the communication/rotations defensively to start the year whereas it's much easier for a team to gel offensively early. Remember, this team was giving up 120+ a night through the first 4 games last year too.

When you look at how the Celts are defending FGA, the numbers aren't too different from the elite defense we saw last season. They're "defending" 88.5 FGA a game this year compared to 88.1 FGA last year. The difference is how opponents are doing against those defended FGA

2022-23: 47.7%

2021-22: 43%

We can look even closer in terms of what those defended FGA even look like based on how the NBA tracks in terms of "openness"

Very tight coverage: 28.6% (2nd)

Tight coverage: 52.2% (22nd)

Open: 50.6% (28th)

Wide Open: 42.7% (19th)

When you look at the shot totals, 39.3 fall under that "tight coverage" category. That is by FAR the highest amount of shots that opponents are taking. That tells us that the Celts defense for the most part is doing a good job of actually contesting FGA. For comparison, the Bucks (who own the #1 defense) come in at 39.3 as well. The difference? Opponents are currently shooting 39.8% on those shots to the 52.2% the Celts are dealing with. That is not sustainable.

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If you look last season, the Celts had 34.0 "tight" contests and opponents shot 47%. So you can see, when it comes to defending FGA and forcing opponents to take tougher/contested FGA, things aren't all that different from their elite defense. Guys have just made some tough looks through 4 games.

When it comes to transition defense, the Celts are still elite. They rank in the 93rd percentile in transition defense, allowing just 0.96 per transition possession. Last year, it was the 89th percentile/1.07 points per possession. 

So just add it all up.

Yes, the Celts defense is giving up a shit ton of points. That is true. Yes, they need to tweak how they defend P&Rs and figure out ways to limit midrange/paint FGA. But that's correctable. It's also true that opponents have been making an absurdly high percentage of contested looks, which will come down. Water will eventually find its level.

This is not a situation where the Celts don't have enough defensive talent without Rob. We know they do because we've seen it. I think it would be silly to fully freak out over the defense because opponents are making 52% of their contested looks. Teams are shooting 50% on contested threes to start the year. I assure you that is not going to continue. The Celts are still elite at defending the rim, they are still elite in transition. They've just struggled at defending the midrange which historically is not exactly high percentage look for guys not named DeMar DeRozan. 

Do they need to be better? For sure. But I implore you to not freak out because through 4 games opponents are making contested looks at an unsustainable rate.